PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
17th · 9 pts · 11 played
LLDDL
1–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 16 pts · 11 played
LDWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. PEC Zwolle had 6.4 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6.3 and had to travel 128 km.
Away travel128 kmRest days6.4 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
PEC Zwolle32%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam41%
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 41
Team strength
PEC ZwolleSparta Rotterdam
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
17
AttackIn forecast
32
14
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleSparta Rotterdam
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
2.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.09
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
73%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
8.45
ShotsContext
11.82
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
32%
On target shareContext
35%
4.91
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
58%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.38
16.91
Shots allowedContext
17.82
6.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.30
3.55
BlocksContext
4.73
4.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
63%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
358
PassesContext
348
282
Accurate passesContext
272
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.36
FoulsContext
7.45
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.60
ShotsContext
12.20
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
58%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.38
17.00
Shots allowedContext
17.40
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.78
3.40
BlocksContext
4.80
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.89
60%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
360
PassesContext
349
285
Accurate passesContext
273
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
8.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel128 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 84 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
7S. Shoretire
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6J. de Guzmán
11A. Oufkir
10L. Duijvestijn
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | L 0–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 1–6 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Telstar | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 1–5 H |
| Points | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 PEC Zwolle wins1 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–1PEC Zwolle
- 30 Nov 2024PEC Zwolle1–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 4 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2PEC Zwolle
- 12 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–2Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.45 | 2.09 | |
| Match goals | 3.64 | 3.36 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 36% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.18 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 10.91 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 91% 10/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 3.64 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 7.10 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.70 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.36
Red cards0.22league 0.22
Cards 5+27%league 33%
Fouls21.7league 22.2
Penalties0.22league 0.30
Home wins44%league 49%
PEC Zwolle4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L25 Apr 25A · Feyenoord0–41
- L11 Jan 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–11
- D11 Feb 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–12
- W2 Dec 23A · FC Volendam5–00
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D14 May 25A · Utrecht1–10
- D19 Oct 24H · Almere City FC2–23
- L24 Feb 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–24
- L8 Oct 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam11 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
8
61-75
4
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 12 · conceded 25
2
1
0-15
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
