Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Nov 8 · 20:00 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
PEC Zwolle 17th · 9 pts · 11 played
1–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam 9th · 16 pts · 11 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
PEC Zwolle39.2%fair odds 2.55
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Sparta Rotterdam33.5%fair odds 2.99
Expected goals1.39 – 1.27total 2.66
Likeliest score1–113.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

PEC Zwolle

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Sparta Rotterdam

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

PEC Zwolle ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam →0123456+
07.78.25.62.40.80.20.0
19.113.07.83.31.00.30.1
26.88.65.42.30.70.20.0
33.14.02.51.10.30.10.0
41.11.40.90.40.10.00.0
50.30.40.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–113.0%7.69
  • 1–09.1%11.00
  • 2–18.6%11.64
  • 0–18.2%12.16
  • 1–27.8%12.77
  • 0–07.7%13.05
  • 2–06.8%14.76
  • 0–25.6%17.77
  • 2–25.4%18.37
  • 3–14.0%25.11

Winning margin

6.9% PEC Zwolle by 3+ fair 14.60
11.7% PEC Zwolle by 2 fair 8.51
20.6% PEC Zwolle by 1 fair 4.85
27.3% Draw fair 3.66
18.7% Sparta Rotterdam by 1 fair 5.34
9.8% Sparta Rotterdam by 2 fair 10.25
5.0% Sparta Rotterdam by 3+ fair 19.96

Goal distribution

Total goals

8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+

PEC Zwolle goals

25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Sparta Rotterdam goals

28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
PEC Zwolle win 39.2% 39.1% +0.1 pp
Draw 27.3% 27.3% +0.0 pp
Sparta Rotterdam win 33.5% 33.6% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 49.6% 49.7% -0.1 pp
Both teams score 54.6% 54.7% -0.1 pp
Expected goals PEC Zwolle 1.39 1.39 +0.00
Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.27 1.27 -0.00

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • PEC Zwolle win39.2%2.55
  • Draw27.3%3.66
  • Sparta Rotterdam win33.5%2.99
  • Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw66.5%1.50
  • Double chance PEC Zwolle or Sparta Rotterdam72.7%1.38
  • Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw60.8%1.64
  • Draw no bet PEC Zwolle53.9%1.85
  • Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam46.1%2.17

Goals

  • Over 0.592.3%1.08
  • Over 1.575.0%1.33
  • Over 2.549.6%2.02
  • Over 3.527.7%3.61
  • Over 4.513.1%7.64
  • Under 1.525.0%4.00
  • Under 2.550.4%1.98
  • Under 3.572.3%1.38

Both teams to score

  • Yes54.6%1.83
  • No45.4%2.20
  • Yes and over 2.541.6%2.40
  • PEC Zwolle win and yes18.7%5.34
  • Draw and yes19.6%5.09
  • Sparta Rotterdam win and yes16.3%6.15

Team goals

  • PEC Zwolle over 0.575.1%1.33
  • PEC Zwolle over 1.540.5%2.47
  • PEC Zwolle over 2.516.4%6.09
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 0.571.8%1.39
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 1.536.2%2.77
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 2.513.5%7.38
  • PEC Zwolle clean sheet28.2%3.55
  • Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet24.9%4.02
  • PEC Zwolle win to nil20.5%4.88
  • Sparta Rotterdam win to nil17.2%5.80

Handicap

  • PEC Zwolle −1.518.6%5.38
  • PEC Zwolle −2.56.9%14.60
  • Sparta Rotterdam +1.581.4%1.23
  • Sparta Rotterdam +2.593.1%1.07
  • Sparta Rotterdam −1.514.8%6.77
  • PEC Zwolle +1.585.2%1.17

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored103 Favourite won53.4% Avg chance given to result42.8% 1X2 Brier0.556 Over 2.5 called right68.0% BTTS called right60.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1738.1%23.5%
40–50%3444.3%44.1%
50–60%2755.5%55.6%
60–70%1463.7%78.6%
70–80%875.6%87.5%
80%+381.7%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 81 of 103 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55570.5295
Avg chance given to result42.5%45.0%
Favourite won51.9%58.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 81 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 103 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.