PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 27). PEC Zwolle had 15.8 days of rest, Utrecht 7 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days15.8 · 7Matches / 14d0 · 2
PEC Zwolle33%
Draw27%
Utrecht40%
PEC Zwolle33%
Draw27%
Utrecht40%
PEC Zwolle33%
Draw27%
Utrecht40%
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw26%
Utrecht48%
PEC Zwolle33%
Draw27%
Utrecht40%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
Utrecht
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
17
AttackIn forecast
32
14
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleUtrecht
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+1.34
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.50
ShotsContext
18.33
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
29%
On target shareContext
40%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
13.33
54%
Box shareContext
73%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.67
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
100%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
374
PassesContext
410
294
Accurate passesContext
339
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.26
Team ratingContext
7.26
12.00
FoulsContext
9.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.50
ShotsContext
15.75
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.63
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.83
59%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.63
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.89
BlocksContext
3.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
76%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
433
PassesContext
393
359
Accurate passesContext
319
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.12
Team ratingContext
7.13
12.30
FoulsContext
12.13
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Aug | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 96 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
3O. Aertssen
28S. Graves
4A. MacNulty
2S. Floranus
30R. Thomas
35Jamiro Monteiro
11D. Mbayo
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
2S. Horemans
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
16S. El Karouani
6D. van den Berg
27A. Engwanda
21G. Zechiël
22Miguel Rodríguez
9D. Min
55D. Murkin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Utrecht · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 PEC Zwolle wins1 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 1 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle3–3Utrecht
- 11 Aug 2024Utrecht1–0PEC Zwolle
- 27 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 10.34 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 2.33 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.14 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 10.28 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.39
Red cards0.05league 0.13
Cards 5+38%league 35%
Fouls23.3league 22.6
Penalties0.24league 0.16
Home wins52%league 55%
PEC Zwolle2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Aug 24A · Utrecht0–13
- W22 Oct 23A · Excelsior4–22
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–01
- W11 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Utrecht3 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
