Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 15). Pisa had 7 days of rest, AC Milan 10 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days7 · 10Matches / 14d2 · 1
Pisa11%
Draw21%
AC Milan68%
Pisa11%
Draw19%
AC Milan70%
Pisa11%
Draw21%
AC Milan68%
Pisa8%
Draw17%
AC Milan74%
Pisa11%
Draw19%
AC Milan70%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 66
Team strength
Pisa
AC Milan
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
15
AttackIn forecast
72
21
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaAC Milan
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
96%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
10.33
ShotsContext
13.26
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
27%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.27
71%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.21
Shots allowedContext
10.87
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.76
4.32
BlocksContext
3.43
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
68%
Save rateContext
84%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
309
PassesContext
473
234
Accurate passesContext
414
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.83
FoulsContext
9.57
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.39
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.70
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
77%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.22
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.11
BlocksContext
3.22
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
79%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
301
PassesContext
481
223
Accurate passesContext
420
74%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.80
FoulsContext
9.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel218 km401 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Feb | 10Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 396 km | 401 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
12Nícolas(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
35Felipe Loyola
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
81F. Stojilković
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
24Z. Athekame
18C. Nkunku
8R. Loftus-Cheek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AC Milan-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.17
AC Milan · Away
2.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Como | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 14 of 69 · 0.61 per game | 49 of 66 · 2.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 AC Milan wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Oct 2025AC Milan2–2Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.39 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 48% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 4% | |
| Games | 24 | 23 |
| Pisa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.26 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.09 | 9.55 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 3.65 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Pisa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.44 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.09league 3.81
Red cards0.30league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 36%
Fouls24.2league 25.5
Penalties0.14league 0.31
Home wins36%league 38%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
AC Milan6 with this referee
Record3-3-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- W28 Dec 25H · Verona3–00
- D29 Dec 24H · AS Roma1–14
- D9 Nov 24A · Cagliari3–32
- W5 Nov 22H · Spezia2–16
- W10 Sep 22A · Sampdoria2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa24 games · scored 19 · conceded 40
4
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
11
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
11
76-90
AC Milan23 games · scored 38 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
8
2
31-45
10
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
