Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Pisa had 5.2 days of rest, Cremonese 6 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Pisa38%
Draw29%
Cremonese33%
Pisa39%
Draw27%
Cremonese34%
Pisa37%
Draw29%
Cremonese34%
Pisa32%
Draw29%
Cremonese39%
Pisa40%
Draw27%
Cremonese33%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 40
Team strength
Pisa
Cremonese
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
15
AttackIn forecast
16
21
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaCremonese
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
7.30
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
22%
On target shareContext
43%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
64%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.80
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.78
BlocksContext
4.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
71%
Save rateContext
78%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
309
PassesContext
360
238
Accurate passesContext
281
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.30
FoulsContext
11.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
7.30
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
22%
On target shareContext
43%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
64%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.80
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.78
BlocksContext
4.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
71%
Save rateContext
78%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
309
PassesContext
360
238
Accurate passesContext
281
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.30
FoulsContext
11.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel161 km235 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 235 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
11J. Cuadrado
14E. Akinsanmiro
20M. Aebischer
21İ. Vural
15I. Touré
32S. Moreo
18M. Nzola
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
27J. Vandeputte
30M. Faye
32M. Payero
38W. Bondo
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
20F. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Cremonese-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.40
Cremonese · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Pisa | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.90 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Pisa | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.90 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 3.91
Red cards0.35league 0.13
Cards 5+65%league 39%
Fouls23.6league 25.9
Penalties0.23league 0.29
Home wins50%league 37%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Mar 23H · Fiorentina0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
