Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 14). Fiorentina usually keep the ball (50% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Pisa had 5.8 days of rest, Fiorentina 6.9 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Pisa18%
Draw25%
Fiorentina56%
Pisa19%
Draw24%
Fiorentina58%
Pisa18%
Draw25%
Fiorentina56%
Pisa14%
Draw23%
Fiorentina63%
Pisa19%
Draw24%
Fiorentina58%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 49
Team strength
Pisa
Fiorentina
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
15
AttackIn forecast
42
21
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaFiorentina
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.25
ShotsContext
11.50
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.25
29%
On target shareContext
20%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
60%
Box shareContext
54%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
5.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
70%
Save rateContext
69%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
313
PassesContext
390
243
Accurate passesContext
319
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.50
FoulsContext
14.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
17.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.25
ShotsContext
14.60
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
60%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.63
15.50
Shots allowedContext
14.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.00
BlocksContext
3.63
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
70%
Save rateContext
67%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
313
PassesContext
445
243
Accurate passesContext
372
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.50
FoulsContext
12.30
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
16.30
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km899 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Sep | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 899 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
94G. Bonfanti
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
7M. Léris
14E. Akinsanmiro
20M. Aebischer
6M. Marin
15I. Touré
18M. Nzola
10M. Tramoni
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
18Pablo Marí
5M. Pongračić
21R. Gosens
14H. Nicolussi
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
10A. Guðmundsson
22J. Fazzini
20M. Kean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fiorentina+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fiorentina · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Pisa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Pisa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.40 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.52
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+33%league 34%
Fouls23.7league 25.8
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins43%league 39%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 3
- D13 Apr 25H · Parma0–00
- L4 Jan 25H · Napoli0–30
- W7 Jan 23H · Sassuolo2–14
- D6 Mar 22H · Verona1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa4 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fiorentina3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Pisa4 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
