Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Pisa18.3%fair odds 5.47
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.93
Fiorentina56.3%fair odds 1.78
Expected goals0.85 – 1.67total 2.52
Likeliest score0–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Pisa ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Pisa goals, columns Fiorentina goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–112.9%7.76
- 1–112.0%8.32
- 0–211.3%8.88
- 1–29.5%10.49
- 0–08.7%11.52
- 0–36.3%15.96
- 1–06.2%16.05
- 1–35.3%18.85
- 2–14.8%20.70
- 2–24.0%24.79
Winning margin
1.4%
Pisa by 3+
fair 70.45
4.5%
Pisa by 2
fair 22.12
12.3%
Pisa by 1
fair 8.10
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.93
24.9%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 4.01
17.6%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 5.68
13.8%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 7.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Pisa goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Fiorentina goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 18.3% | 18.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 23.6% | +1.8 pp |
| Fiorentina win | 56.3% | 57.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 53.5% | -7.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.0% | 52.8% | -5.8 pp |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.85 | 0.96 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 1.67 | 1.86 | -0.19 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Pisa win18.3%5.47
- Draw25.4%3.93
- Fiorentina win56.3%1.78
- Double chance Pisa or draw43.7%2.29
- Double chance Pisa or Fiorentina74.6%1.34
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw81.7%1.22
- Draw no bet Pisa24.5%4.08
- Draw no bet Fiorentina75.5%1.32
Goals
- Over 0.591.3%1.10
- Over 1.572.2%1.38
- Over 2.546.0%2.17
- Over 3.524.6%4.07
- Over 4.511.1%9.01
- Under 1.527.8%3.60
- Under 2.554.0%1.85
- Under 3.575.4%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes47.0%2.13
- No53.0%1.89
- Yes and over 2.534.9%2.86
- Pisa win and yes8.1%12.29
- Draw and yes16.7%5.97
- Fiorentina win and yes22.1%4.53
Team goals
- Pisa over 0.557.1%1.75
- Pisa over 1.520.8%4.81
- Pisa over 2.55.4%18.40
- Fiorentina over 0.581.2%1.23
- Fiorentina over 1.549.7%2.01
- Fiorentina over 2.523.5%4.26
- Pisa clean sheet18.8%5.31
- Fiorentina clean sheet42.9%2.33
- Pisa win to nil10.1%9.85
- Fiorentina win to nil34.2%2.92
Handicap
- Pisa −1.55.9%16.83
- Pisa −2.51.4%70.45
- Fiorentina +1.594.1%1.06
- Fiorentina +2.598.6%1.01
- Fiorentina −1.531.3%3.19
- Pisa +1.568.7%1.46
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.609
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right47.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 52.5% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 63.4% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 81.0% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6110 | 0.5891 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.0% | 40.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 54.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.