Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Genoa. Pisa had 8.9 days of rest, Genoa 7.2 and had to travel 140 km.
Away travel140 kmRest days8.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Pisa29%
Draw30%
Genoa41%
Pisa27%
Draw26%
Genoa46%
Pisa27%
Draw30%
Genoa43%
Pisa23%
Draw29%
Genoa48%
Pisa30%
Draw28%
Genoa42%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 8
Team strength
Pisa
Genoa
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
15
AttackIn forecast
23
21
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaGenoa
0.72
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.81
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
44%
Scored inContext
66%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.47
ShotsContext
11.41
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.94
28%
On target shareContext
35%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
69%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.78
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
4.00
BlocksContext
4.45
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
66%
Save rateContext
68%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
316
PassesContext
374
241
Accurate passesContext
302
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.66
FoulsContext
12.34
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
14.56
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
30%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.10
ShotsContext
13.40
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
30%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
59%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.20
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.33
BlocksContext
3.20
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
55%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
342
PassesContext
414
263
Accurate passesContext
349
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.60
FoulsContext
9.70
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km531 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel140 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 140 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 531 km | 248 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
35Felipe Loyola
20M. Aebischer
14E. Akinsanmiro
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
4Alexsandro Amorim
73P. Masini
20S. Sabelli
8T. Baldanzi
29L. Colombo
21J. Ekhator
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genoa-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-10
- Scored
- 0.44
- Conceded
- 1.19
Genoa · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Como | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Juventus | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 93 · 0.55 per game | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Jan 2026Genoa1–1Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.72 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.81 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.59 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 56% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Pisa | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.58 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 8.86 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 12/31 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 9/31 | 18% 5/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.09 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.66 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 4.54 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 19/32 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Pisa | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 6.90 | 8.70 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.72
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+25%league 35%
Fouls25.1league 24.8
Penalties0.25league 0.29
Home wins50%league 40%
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L22 Sep 25A · Napoli2–33
GenoaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa32 games · scored 23 · conceded 58
5
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
13
31-45
5
8
46-60
3
10
61-75
5
16
76-90
Genoa32 games · scored 38 · conceded 45
5
6
0-15
5
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
9
46-60
8
9
61-75
12
7
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
