Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 16). Pisa had 6.3 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Pisa14%
Draw22%
Juventus64%
Pisa14%
Draw21%
Juventus66%
Pisa14%
Draw22%
Juventus64%
Pisa10%
Draw19%
Juventus71%
Pisa14%
Draw21%
Juventus65%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 67
Team strength
Pisa
Juventus
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
15
AttackIn forecast
57
21
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaJuventus
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
44%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.88
ShotsContext
15.00
2.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
23%
On target shareContext
35%
7.85
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
69%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.77
15.63
Shots allowedContext
10.69
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
4.67
BlocksContext
2.94
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.19
69%
Save rateContext
70%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
313
PassesContext
495
241
Accurate passesContext
429
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.88
FoulsContext
13.00
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
10.81
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
16.00
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
23%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
72%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.44
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
81%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
332
PassesContext
507
258
Accurate passesContext
439
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.60
FoulsContext
13.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,019 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel264 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,019 km | 590 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
21İ. Vural
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
22W. McKennie
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
27A. Cambiaso
10K. Yıldız
8T. Koopmeiners
20I. Openda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Juventus-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.13
- Conceded
- 0.63
Juventus · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 42 · 0.71 per game | 26 of 42 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.25 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 56% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Pisa | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.93 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 4.19 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Pisa | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.38 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.12league 3.94
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+66%league 39%
Fouls25.0league 26.1
Penalties0.19league 0.31
Home wins36%league 39%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Juventus7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D13 Apr 24A · Torino0–02
- L4 Feb 24A · Inter0–13
- W16 Sep 23H · Lazio3–15
- L5 Mar 23A · AS Roma0–13
- L18 Sep 22A · Monza0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa16 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Juventus16 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
