Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lecce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. Pisa had 6.2 days of rest, Lecce 6 and had to travel 742 km.
Away travel742 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Pisa34%
Draw31%
Lecce34%
Pisa35%
Draw27%
Lecce38%
Pisa34%
Draw31%
Lecce34%
Pisa28%
Draw31%
Lecce41%
Pisa36%
Draw29%
Lecce35%
Over 2.5 35%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 83
Team strength
Pisa
Lecce
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
15
AttackIn forecast
36
21
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaLecce
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.65
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
44%
Scored inContext
47%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.56
ShotsContext
9.71
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.57
29%
On target shareContext
23%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.58
69%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.64
14.47
Shots allowedContext
12.32
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.34
4.13
BlocksContext
3.45
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
67%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
317
PassesContext
323
244
Accurate passesContext
244
77%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.00
FoulsContext
12.59
11.41
Fouls sufferedContext
14.09
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
30%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.70
ShotsContext
9.20
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
33%
On target shareContext
23%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
65%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.70
BlocksContext
3.11
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
59%
Save rateContext
60%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
338
PassesContext
294
266
Accurate passesContext
216
79%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.40
FoulsContext
13.10
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km243 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel742 km1,625 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 742 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 243 km | 1,625 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
14E. Akinsanmiro
21İ. Vural
7M. Léris
32S. Moreo
81F. Stojilković
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
79Oumar Ngom
20Y. Ramadani
19L. Banda
29L. Coulibaly
50S. Pierotti
99W. Cheddira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lecce+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.59points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-11
- Scored
- 0.47
- Conceded
- 1.24
Lecce · Away
0.71points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-11
- Scored
- 0.59
- Conceded
- 1.35
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Como | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 99 · 0.55 per game | 26 of 99 · 0.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins0 draws1 Lecce wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 12 Dec 2025Lecce1–0Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 0.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 35% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 35% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 53% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Pisa | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | 2.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.64 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.39 | |
| Match total | 8.52 | 9.66 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 16/33 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 14/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 10/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 1.76 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.32 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 20/34 | 44% 15/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 11/34 | 26% 9/34 | |
| Pisa | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 9.30 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.70
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+25%league 35%
Fouls24.5league 24.8
Penalties0.22league 0.29
Home wins27%league 40%
Pisa2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D6 Feb 26A · Verona0–02
- L8 Dec 25H · Parma0–13
Lecce9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W4 Oct 25A · Parma1–00
- L8 Mar 25H · AC Milan2–32
- W21 Apr 24A · Sassuolo3–00
- L25 Feb 24H · Inter0–41
- L21 Jan 24H · Juventus0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa34 games · scored 24 · conceded 61
5
7
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
14
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
10
61-75
5
17
76-90
Lecce34 games · scored 22 · conceded 46
6
1
0-15
4
9
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
8
46-60
3
14
61-75
5
8
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
