Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. Pisa had 14.2 days of rest, Torino 15 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days14.2 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Pisa29%
Draw30%
Torino41%
Pisa29%
Draw27%
Torino45%
Pisa30%
Draw30%
Torino40%
Pisa24%
Draw29%
Torino48%
Pisa30%
Draw28%
Torino42%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 36
Team strength
Pisa
Torino
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
15
AttackIn forecast
39
21
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaTorino
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
47%
Scored inContext
70%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.63
ShotsContext
11.70
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
28%
On target shareContext
37%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
70%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.11
BlocksContext
3.80
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
66%
Save rateContext
61%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
310
PassesContext
364
236
Accurate passesContext
291
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.73
FoulsContext
13.73
11.37
Fouls sufferedContext
10.23
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
10.90
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
38%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.56
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.89
BlocksContext
4.30
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
55%
Save rateContext
57%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
320
PassesContext
359
246
Accurate passesContext
290
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.60
FoulsContext
13.80
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel264 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 15Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
10M. Tramoni
8M. Højholt
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
9H. Meister
32S. Moreo
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
4M. Prati
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
17S. Kulenović
18G. Simeone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Torino+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-9
- Scored
- 0.47
- Conceded
- 1.20
Torino · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Como | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 17 of 87 · 0.59 per game | 32 of 87 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 Torino wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Nov 2025Torino2–2Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.90 | 2.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 63% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 47% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 30% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Pisa | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.58 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 14/29 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.43 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 11/30 | 20% 6/30 | |
| Pisa | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.60 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.78league 3.75
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls23.8league 25.1
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins56%league 39%
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D24 Oct 25A · AC Milan2–24
Torino2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Nov 25A · Juventus0–01
- D7 May 23H · Monza1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa30 games · scored 23 · conceded 54
5
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
12
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
10
61-75
5
15
76-90
Torino30 games · scored 34 · conceded 53
3
5
0-15
7
11
16-30
5
9
31-45
6
9
46-60
4
11
61-75
9
8
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
8
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
