Plzen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 52). Absences weigh more on Plzen. Plzen had 41.9 days of rest, FC Porto 3.9 and had to travel 1,944 km.
Away travel1,944 kmRest days41.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Plzen26%
Draw25%
FC Porto49%
Plzen28%
Draw26%
FC Porto46%
Plzen27%
Draw26%
FC Porto47%
Plzen20%
Draw23%
FC Porto57%
Plzen27%
Draw26%
FC Porto48%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Plzeň)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndris Treimanis
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 34
Team strength
Plzen
FC Porto
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
54
AttackIn forecast
74
43
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PlzenFC Porto
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
50%
Scored inContext
83%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.83
ShotsContext
14.33
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
35%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
54%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.83
Shots allowedContext
9.17
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
4.17
BlocksContext
3.17
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.60
92%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
308
PassesContext
488
238
Accurate passesContext
419
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.67
FoulsContext
11.67
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
50%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
15.22
ShotsContext
14.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
39%
On target shareContext
40%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
60%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.11
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.29
3.67
BlocksContext
3.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
82%
Save rateContext
100%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
333
PassesContext
487
260
Accurate passesContext
419
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.56
FoulsContext
13.10
12.56
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Plzen
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,944 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Plzen |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 41.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 3.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,944 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Plzen
Confirmed XI
44F. Wiegele(G)
19C. Souaré
5K. Spáčil
14Merchas Doski
7C. Kabongo
32M. Valenta
6L. Červ
99Amar Memić
18T. Ladra
11M. Vydra
9D. Višinský
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
52Martim Fernandes
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Plzen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Plzen-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- FC Porto+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Plzen · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FC Porto · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Plzen | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Plzen | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Plzen | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.10 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Plzen | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 9.00 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 4.84 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 6/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Plzen | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 6.85 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andris Treimanis 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.94league 4.09
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls27.2league 24.4
Penalties0.44league 0.35
Home wins53%league 50%
Plzen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Nov 24H · Real Sociedad2–13
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Plzen6 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FC Porto6 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 2
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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