Plzen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Plzen51.5%fair odds 1.94
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.85
Panathinaikos22.6%fair odds 4.43
Expected goals1.63 – 1.00total 2.63
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Panathinaikos
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Plzen ↓ · Panathinaikos → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Plzen goals, columns Panathinaikos goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 1–011.1%8.99
- 2–09.6%10.44
- 2–19.6%10.44
- 0–07.8%12.77
- 0–16.6%15.19
- 1–25.9%17.03
- 3–05.2%19.21
- 3–15.2%19.21
- 2–24.8%20.89
Winning margin
11.8%
Plzen by 3+
fair 8.45
16.0%
Plzen by 2
fair 6.26
23.7%
Plzen by 1
fair 4.22
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.85
14.3%
Panathinaikos by 1
fair 7.00
6.0%
Panathinaikos by 2
fair 16.66
2.3%
Panathinaikos by 3+
fair 43.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Plzen goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Panathinaikos goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 51.5% | 51.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Panathinaikos win | 22.6% | 22.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | 47.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.4% | 50.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Plzen | 1.63 | 1.62 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Panathinaikos | 1.00 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Plzen win51.5%1.94
- Draw25.9%3.85
- Panathinaikos win22.6%4.43
- Double chance Plzen or draw77.4%1.29
- Double chance Plzen or Panathinaikos74.1%1.35
- Double chance Panathinaikos or draw48.5%2.06
- Draw no bet Plzen69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet Panathinaikos30.5%3.28
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.5%1.34
- Over 2.548.9%2.04
- Over 3.527.1%3.70
- Over 4.512.7%7.88
- Under 1.525.5%3.92
- Under 2.551.1%1.96
- Under 3.572.9%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes51.4%1.94
- No48.6%2.06
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Plzen win and yes22.5%4.44
- Draw and yes18.1%5.52
- Panathinaikos win and yes10.8%9.25
Team goals
- Plzen over 0.580.4%1.24
- Plzen over 1.548.5%2.06
- Plzen over 2.522.5%4.45
- Panathinaikos over 0.563.2%1.58
- Panathinaikos over 1.526.4%3.79
- Panathinaikos over 2.58.0%12.46
- Plzen clean sheet36.8%2.72
- Panathinaikos clean sheet19.6%5.11
- Plzen win to nil29.0%3.45
- Panathinaikos win to nil11.8%8.51
Handicap
- Plzen −1.527.8%3.60
- Plzen −2.511.8%8.45
- Panathinaikos +1.572.2%1.38
- Panathinaikos +2.588.2%1.13
- Panathinaikos −1.58.3%12.07
- Plzen +1.591.7%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored8
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result33.9%
1X2 Brier0.670
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right62.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 37.3% | 66.7% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.2% | 40.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 8 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6702 | 0.6868 |
| Avg chance given to result | 33.9% | 33.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 25.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 8 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.