Plzen vs Panathinaikos – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 17:45 Doosan Aréna, Plzeň

Plzen 9th · 1 pts · 1 played D

First leg2–2 1–1Full time

Panathinaikos 8th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Plzen were slight favourites.

Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Plzen. Plzen had 6.9 days of rest, Panathinaikos 6.9 and had to travel 1,544 km.

Away travel1,544 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Plzen51%

Draw26%

Panathinaikos23%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.00

Plzen50%

Draw26%

Panathinaikos24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Plzen50%

Draw27%

Panathinaikos23%

Expected goals 1.55 – 0.98

Plzen44%

Draw27%

Panathinaikos28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.12

Plzen52%

Draw26%

Panathinaikos22%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.97

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Plzeň)

No weather data yet

Referee · LithuaniaDonatas Rumsas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 21

Team strength

Plzen

Panathinaikos

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

54 AttackIn forecast 48

43 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Panathinaikos

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Plzen

Panathinaikos

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

70% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.60 ShotsContext 12.00

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

36% On target shareContext 35%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

60% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.60 Shots allowedContext 9.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.10 BlocksContext 3.00

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

86% Save rateContext 76%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

329 PassesContext 486

254 Accurate passesContext 400

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.80 FoulsContext 13.30

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 16.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Plzen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,087 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Panathinaikos

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,544 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Plzen	Panathinaikos
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,087 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	175	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Plzen Confirmed XI

4-5-1

44F. Wiegele(G)

21V. Jemelka 5K. Spáčil 40S. Dweh 99Amar Memić

9D. Višinský 18T. Ladra 17P. Hrošovský 6L. Červ 19C. Souaré

70S. Lawal

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40A. Lafont(G)

5A. Touba 15S. Ingason 3G. Katris

77G. Kyriakopoulos 8R. Luz Sanches 11A. Bakasetas 2D. Calabria

9A. Zaroury 7A. Tetteh 20V. Taborda

+14 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Plzen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Panathinaikos Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Plzen+1.5 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Panathinaikos-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Plzen · Home No home games yet this season.

Panathinaikos · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Plzen wins2 draws0 Panathinaikos wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

19 Feb 2026Panathinaikos2–2Plzen
11 Dec 2025Panathinaikos0–0Plzen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Plzen	Panathinaikos	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	4.00	2.63
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	49%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Plzen	Panathinaikos	Forecast
Scored per game	1.11	1.44
Conceded per game	0.56	1.22
Match goals	1.67	2.67	2.63
Over 1.5	56%	78%
Over 2.5	33%	56%	49%
Over 3.5	11%	33%
Both teams scored	44%	78%	51%
Clean sheets	56%	22%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Plzen	Panathinaikos	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.86
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	3.43
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Plzen	Panathinaikos	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	4.78
Corners conceded	5.33	2.67
Match total	10.11	7.45	8.86
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.10
Opponent cards	3.00	2.70
Match total	5.70	4.80	3.43
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Donatas Rumsas Lithuania · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.63

Red cards0.19league 0.00

Cards 5+29%league 38%

Fouls23.7league 21.8

Penalties0.14league 0.00

Home wins33%league 13%

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

Panathinaikos1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L22 Jul 25A · Rangers0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.