PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 34 pts · 13 played
WWWWW
3–0Full time
FC Volendam
15th · 14 pts · 13 played
LWLWD
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 15). Absences weigh more on PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 7.8 days of rest, FC Volendam 7.7 and had to travel 120 km.
Away travel120 kmRest days7.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
PSV Eindhoven87%
Draw9%
FC Volendam4%
PSV Eindhoven87%
Draw10%
FC Volendam4%
PSV Eindhoven88%
Draw9%
FC Volendam3%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw12%
FC Volendam6%
PSV Eindhoven86%
Draw10%
FC Volendam4%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 29
Team strength
PSV EindhovenFC Volendam
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
60
AttackIn forecast
14
64
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenFC Volendam
3.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+1.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
92%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
17.77
ShotsContext
10.69
7.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
40%
On target shareContext
35%
11.92
Shots in the boxContext
6.62
68%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.36
11.77
Shots allowedContext
17.46
4.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.31
3.58
BlocksContext
5.31
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
68%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
534
PassesContext
372
461
Accurate passesContext
302
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.15
FoulsContext
9.15
8.54
Fouls sufferedContext
12.08
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+1.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.60
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
31%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
70%
Box shareContext
62%
24%
ConversionContext
10%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.22
11.60
Shots allowedContext
17.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.22
BlocksContext
5.10
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
74%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
504
PassesContext
376
438
Accurate passesContext
309
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.60
FoulsContext
8.90
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km102 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel120 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 120 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 102 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
34I. Saibari
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
19E. Bajraktarević
9R. Pepi
20G. Til
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
14A. Meijers
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
2D. Payne
32Y. Leliendal
8G. Yah
18N. Bukala
10B. Kuwas
99A. Descotte
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.14 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.8 pp
- FC Volendam+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 3.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
FC Volendam · Away
0.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 5–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 5–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 25 of 30 · 2.50 per game | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 Feb 2024FC Volendam1–5PSV Eindhoven
- 30 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven3–1FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.15 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 4.46 | 2.92 | 3.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 69% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 62% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 77% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| PSV Eindhoven | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 2.80 | 3.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.15 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 5.92 | |
| Match total | 10.53 | 10.09 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.31 | 1.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 2.93 | 3.30 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% 4/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 2/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.33 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.40 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.34league 3.36
Red cards0.31league 0.21
Cards 5+17%league 32%
Fouls18.6league 22.1
Penalties0.28league 0.28
Home wins41%league 49%
PSV Eindhoven2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Aug 24A · Heracles3–10
- W11 Feb 24A · FC Volendam5–11
FC Volendam4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25A · Utrecht1–31
- L11 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–52
- L7 Dec 23A · Feyenoord1–31
- L2 Nov 23A · Ajax0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven13 games · scored 41 · conceded 17
6
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
7
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
3
76-90
FC Volendam13 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
1
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 32 · conceded 11
3
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
