PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord – 1 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 1 · 13:30 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven 1st · 53 pts · 20 played WWWWD

First leg3–2 3–0Full time

Feyenoord 2nd · 39 pts · 20 played LDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Feyenoord. PSV Eindhoven had 7.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 2.7 and had to travel 87 km.

Away travel87 kmRest days7.8 · 2.7Matches / 14d1 · 4

PSV Eindhoven66%

Draw20%

Feyenoord14%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.97

PSV Eindhoven64%

Draw21%

Feyenoord15%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.87

PSV Eindhoven65%

Draw20%

Feyenoord15%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.98

PSV Eindhoven58%

Draw22%

Feyenoord19%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.08

PSV Eindhoven61%

Draw22%

Feyenoord17%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.96

Over 2.5 63% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Eindhoven)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 70

Team strength

PSV Eindhoven

Feyenoord

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

60 AttackIn forecast 76

64 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV Eindhoven

Feyenoord

3.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.55

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+1.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

95% Scored inContext 95%

25% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.25 ShotsContext 17.55

7.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75

41% On target shareContext 39%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.35

69% Box shareContext 71%

18% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.08

11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.53

3.18 BlocksContext 3.00

2.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

68% Save rateContext 67%

61% PossessionIn forecast 54%

550 PassesContext 448

478 Accurate passesContext 375

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.04

11.75 FoulsContext 9.55

8.55 Fouls sufferedContext 10.55

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.35

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.91

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.50 ShotsContext 15.10

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

42% On target shareContext 40%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

65% Box shareContext 69%

16% ConversionContext 17%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.90 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.25 BlocksContext 3.33

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

64% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

536 PassesContext 451

463 Accurate passesContext 379

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.70 FoulsContext 10.50

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest2.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel87 km3,623 km in 14d

Schedule load53%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 53
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan	2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	87 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	3,623 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	2 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32M. Kovář(G)

17Mauro Júnior 4A. Obispo 22J. Schouten 8S. Dest

34I. Saibari 23J. Veerman 10P. Wanner

5I. Perišić 20G. Til 19E. Bajraktarević

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 21A. Ahmedhodžić 8J. St. Juste 20M. Deijl

40L. Valente 28O. Targhalline

16L. Sauer 6I. Hwang 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.08 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PSV Eindhoven+0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Feyenoord-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.30points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-1
Scored: 3.30
Conceded: 1.60

Feyenoord · Away 1.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 2.44
Conceded: 1.22

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord
NAC Breda	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 AW 5–2 H	W 2–0 H
Excelsior	W 5–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 A
Utrecht	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 H
Heracles	W 4–3 H	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	W 3–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 5–1 A	D 3–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 4–0 A	W 6–1 H
Ajax	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 5–3 A	L 2–4 H
Telstar	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 A
Groningen	W 4–2 H	W 1–0 A
Twente	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 6–1 H	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A
Points	50 of 57 · 2.63 per game	39 of 57 · 2.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game2.75 – 1.25 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

26 Oct 2025Feyenoord2–3PSV Eindhoven
11 May 2025Feyenoord2–3PSV Eindhoven
22 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven3–0Feyenoord
3 Dec 2023Feyenoord1–2PSV Eindhoven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	3.05	2.55
Conceded per game	1.25	1.45
Match goals	4.30	4.00	3.23
Over 1.5	95%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	55%	55%
Both teams scored	70%	65%	56%
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Failed to score	5%	5%
Games	20	20

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	3.10	2.50
Conceded per game	1.10	1.90
Match goals	4.20	4.40	3.23
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	7.11
Corners conceded	4.20	3.78
Match total	11.20	10.89	10.22
Over 8.5	80% 16/20	72% 13/18
Over 9.5	80% 16/20	61% 11/18
Over 10.5	55% 11/20	50% 9/18
Cards
Cards	1.45	1.45
Opponent cards	1.65	1.25
Match total	3.10	2.70	3.55
Over 3.5	35% 7/20	30% 6/20
Over 4.5	25% 5/20	10% 2/20

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	7.30	6.22
Corners conceded	4.10	3.78
Match total	11.40	10.00	10.22
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.10	3.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 70 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.35

Red cards0.20league 0.20

Cards 5+34%league 31%

Fouls19.9league 21.7

Penalties0.20league 0.27

Home wins36%league 44%

PSV Eindhoven7 with this referee

Record6-1-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

W26 Oct 25A · Feyenoord3–21
W12 Apr 25H · Almere City FC5–00
D8 Feb 25H · Willem II1–10
W19 Oct 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–10
W22 Sep 24A · Fortuna Sittard3–11

Feyenoord6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L26 Oct 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–30
W17 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard2–00
W9 Aug 25H · NAC Breda2–01
W3 May 25A · Heracles4–11
W27 Oct 24A · Utrecht2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.