PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven
2nd · 25 pts · 10 played
DWWWW
5–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 13 pts · 10 played
WLWLL
PSV Eindhoven83.7%fair odds 1.20
Draw11.3%fair odds 8.87
Fortuna Sittard5.1%fair odds 19.80
Expected goals3.02 – 0.67total 3.69
Likeliest score3–011.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.5%8.72
- 2–011.4%8.78
- 4–08.7%11.54
- 3–17.7%13.02
- 2–17.6%13.12
- 1–07.3%13.76
- 4–15.8%17.23
- 1–15.3%18.82
- 5–05.2%19.09
- 5–13.5%28.51
Winning margin
44.4%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 2.25
21.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.70
17.9%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.57
11.3%
Draw
fair 8.87
3.8%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 26.54
1.0%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 95.67
0.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 421.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
5%0
15%1
22%2
22%3
36%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
51%0
34%1
11%2
3%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 83.7% | 81.7% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 11.3% | 12.7% | -1.4 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 5.1% | 5.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 66.6% | +4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.7% | 44.4% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 3.02 | 2.80 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 0.67 | 0.63 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win83.7%1.20
- Draw11.3%8.87
- Fortuna Sittard win5.1%19.80
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw94.9%1.05
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Fortuna Sittard88.7%1.13
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw16.3%6.12
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven94.3%1.06
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard5.7%17.57
Goals
- Over 0.597.2%1.03
- Over 1.588.6%1.13
- Over 2.571.3%1.40
- Over 3.550.4%1.98
- Over 4.531.1%3.22
- Under 1.511.4%8.75
- Under 2.528.7%3.48
- Under 3.549.6%2.02
Both teams to score
- Yes46.7%2.14
- No53.3%1.88
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes35.2%2.84
- Draw and yes8.5%11.74
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes2.9%34.01
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.595.1%1.05
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.580.4%1.24
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.558.2%1.72
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.548.8%2.05
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.514.5%6.88
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.53.1%32.75
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet51.2%1.95
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet4.9%20.53
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil48.4%2.06
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil2.1%47.39
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.565.7%1.52
- PSV Eindhoven −2.544.4%2.25
- Fortuna Sittard +1.534.3%2.92
- Fortuna Sittard +2.555.6%1.80
- Fortuna Sittard −1.51.3%77.96
- PSV Eindhoven +1.598.7%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored90
Favourite won54.4%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.548
Over 2.5 called right71.1%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.0% | 21.4% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 55.7% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 63.6% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 68 of 90 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5462 | 0.5128 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.9% | 45.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 60.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 68 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 90 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.