PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
2nd · 25 pts · 10 played
DWWWW
5–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 13 pts · 10 played
WLWLL
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 17). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PSV Eindhoven had 5.2 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6.2 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
PSV Eindhoven84%
Draw11%
Fortuna Sittard5%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw13%
Fortuna Sittard6%
PSV Eindhoven84%
Draw11%
Fortuna Sittard5%
PSV Eindhoven78%
Draw14%
Fortuna Sittard8%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw13%
Fortuna Sittard6%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 42
Team strength
PSV EindhovenFortuna Sittard
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
60
AttackIn forecast
19
64
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenFortuna Sittard
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.70
ShotsContext
12.60
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
41%
On target shareContext
33%
12.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.30
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
74%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
540
PassesContext
392
466
Accurate passesContext
304
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.60
FoulsContext
13.40
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
12.60
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
33%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
66%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.10
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
523
PassesContext
392
451
Accurate passesContext
304
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.50
FoulsContext
13.40
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel56 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 282 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
17J. Lonwijk
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
18D. Limnios
11M. Aïko
52M. Ihattaren
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Groningen | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 18 of 21 · 2.57 per game | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 22 Sep 2024Fortuna Sittard1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven3–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.90 | 3.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.90 | 3.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.11 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.11 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.26league 3.38
Red cards0.07league 0.20
Cards 5+12%league 33%
Fouls16.9league 22.4
Penalties0.29league 0.24
Home wins55%league 48%
PSV Eindhoven7 with this referee
Record6-0-1
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Aug 25H · Sparta Rotterdam6–11
- W14 May 25H · Heracles4–10
- W5 Apr 25A · Groningen3–12
- L14 Dec 24A · Heerenveen0–10
- W1 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · Utrecht1–04
- D28 Oct 23H · Utrecht0–01
- L22 Sep 23A · GO Ahead Eagles0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
