PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
2nd · 19 pts · 8 played
LWDWW
2–1Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
10th · 10 pts · 8 played
DWWLD
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 27). PSV Eindhoven had 13.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 12.9 and had to travel 102 km.
Away travel102 kmRest days13.9 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
PSV Eindhoven74%
Draw16%
GO Ahead Eagles9%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Draw18%
GO Ahead Eagles10%
PSV Eindhoven75%
Draw16%
GO Ahead Eagles9%
PSV Eindhoven68%
Draw19%
GO Ahead Eagles13%
PSV Eindhoven72%
Draw18%
GO Ahead Eagles10%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 43
Team strength
PSV EindhovenGO Ahead Eagles
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
60
AttackIn forecast
29
64
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenGO Ahead Eagles
3.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+1.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
88%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
19.13
ShotsContext
13.13
7.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
41%
On target shareContext
44%
12.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
63%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.50
Shots allowedContext
19.13
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.38
BlocksContext
7.29
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
69%
Save rateContext
72%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
553
PassesContext
431
478
Accurate passesContext
360
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.13
FoulsContext
9.63
8.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.80
ShotsContext
12.90
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
39%
On target shareContext
44%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
66%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.80
Shots allowedContext
19.30
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.30
BlocksContext
7.38
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
65%
Save rateContext
75%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
548
PassesContext
441
473
Accurate passesContext
370
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.80
FoulsContext
9.70
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km253 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel102 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 12.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 102 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 253 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
7J. Breum
18R. Margaret
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | L 2–4 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws1 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2025GO Ahead Eagles3–2PSV Eindhoven
- 1 Sep 2024PSV Eindhoven3–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 27 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven3–0GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.13 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| PSV Eindhoven | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.13 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.20 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 70% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 7.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 12.63 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 1.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 12.50 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.53
Red cards0.26league 0.23
Cards 5+33%league 37%
Fouls22.8league 22.2
Penalties0.19league 0.23
Home wins44%league 49%
PSV Eindhoven3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 25A · Twente2–02
- W6 Dec 24H · Twente6–10
- W9 Nov 24A · NAC Breda3–02
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W9 Mar 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–21
- D15 Dec 24A · Utrecht3–33
- L3 Dec 23H · Twente1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven8 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles7 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 27 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
