Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Oct 18 · 17:45 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 2nd · 19 pts · 8 played
2–1Full time
GO Ahead Eagles 10th · 10 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
PSV Eindhoven74.4%fair odds 1.34
Draw16.3%fair odds 6.15
GO Ahead Eagles9.3%fair odds 10.77
Expected goals2.52 – 0.80total 3.31
Likeliest score2–011.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

PSV Eindhoven

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

PSV Eindhoven ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles →0123456+
04.02.51.20.30.10.00.0
18.87.72.90.80.20.00.0
211.59.23.61.00.20.00.0
39.77.73.10.80.20.00.0
46.14.81.90.50.10.00.0
53.12.41.00.30.10.00.0
6+2.01.60.60.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–011.5%8.67
  • 3–09.7%10.32
  • 2–19.2%10.90
  • 1–08.8%11.39
  • 3–17.7%12.98
  • 1–17.7%13.03
  • 4–06.1%16.39
  • 4–14.8%20.62
  • 0–04.0%24.85
  • 2–23.6%27.41

Winning margin

31.4% PSV Eindhoven by 3+ fair 3.18
21.5% PSV Eindhoven by 2 fair 4.66
21.6% PSV Eindhoven by 1 fair 4.63
16.3% Draw fair 6.15
6.5% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 15.27
2.1% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 46.77
0.6% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 167.72

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+

PSV Eindhoven goals

8%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
25%4+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
PSV Eindhoven win 74.4% 72.0% +2.4 pp
Draw 16.3% 18.1% -1.8 pp
GO Ahead Eagles win 9.3% 9.9% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 64.3% 58.1% +6.2 pp
Both teams score 50.8% 47.1% +3.7 pp
Expected goals PSV Eindhoven 2.52 2.29 +0.23
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 0.80 0.73 +0.06

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • PSV Eindhoven win74.4%1.34
  • Draw16.3%6.15
  • GO Ahead Eagles win9.3%10.77
  • Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw90.7%1.10
  • Double chance PSV Eindhoven or GO Ahead Eagles83.7%1.19
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw25.6%3.91
  • Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven88.9%1.12
  • Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles11.1%9.02

Goals

  • Over 0.596.0%1.04
  • Over 1.584.7%1.18
  • Over 2.564.3%1.55
  • Over 3.542.3%2.37
  • Over 4.524.0%4.17
  • Under 1.515.3%6.53
  • Under 2.535.7%2.80
  • Under 3.557.7%1.73

Both teams to score

  • Yes50.8%1.97
  • No49.2%2.03
  • Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
  • PSV Eindhoven win and yes33.3%3.00
  • Draw and yes12.2%8.17
  • GO Ahead Eagles win and yes5.2%19.05

Team goals

  • PSV Eindhoven over 0.591.9%1.09
  • PSV Eindhoven over 1.571.6%1.40
  • PSV Eindhoven over 2.546.1%2.17
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 0.554.8%1.82
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 1.518.9%5.28
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 2.54.7%21.40
  • PSV Eindhoven clean sheet45.2%2.21
  • GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet8.1%12.41
  • PSV Eindhoven win to nil41.1%2.43
  • GO Ahead Eagles win to nil4.0%24.79

Handicap

  • PSV Eindhoven −1.552.9%1.89
  • PSV Eindhoven −2.531.4%3.18
  • GO Ahead Eagles +1.547.1%2.12
  • GO Ahead Eagles +2.568.6%1.46
  • GO Ahead Eagles −1.52.7%36.57
  • PSV Eindhoven +1.597.3%1.03

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored73 Favourite won54.8% Avg chance given to result43.5% 1X2 Brier0.546 Over 2.5 called right69.9% BTTS called right63.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%937.9%22.2%
40–50%2344.2%39.1%
50–60%2256.0%59.1%
60–70%1163.7%81.8%
70–80%675.2%83.3%
80%+280.7%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 51 of 73 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54170.5050
Avg chance given to result43.4%46.5%
Favourite won52.9%60.8%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 51 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 73 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.