PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Heracles. PSV Eindhoven had 7.1 days of rest, Heracles 7 and had to travel 130 km.
Away travel130 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
PSV Eindhoven86%
Draw10%
Heracles4%
PSV Eindhoven84%
Draw11%
Heracles4%
PSV Eindhoven86%
Draw10%
Heracles4%
PSV Eindhoven81%
Draw13%
Heracles6%
PSV Eindhoven85%
Draw11%
Heracles4%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlex Chilowicz
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 46
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Heracles
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
60
AttackIn forecast
7
64
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenHeracles
3.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.47
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+1.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
93%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
17.33
ShotsContext
11.20
7.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
41%
On target shareContext
38%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
68%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.60
Shots allowedContext
16.93
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.38
BlocksContext
5.47
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
71%
Save rateContext
59%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
546
PassesContext
337
474
Accurate passesContext
260
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.67
FoulsContext
12.40
8.53
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
1.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+1.68
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
40%
On target shareContext
42%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
71%
Box shareContext
67%
25%
ConversionContext
18%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.10
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.25
BlocksContext
3.90
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
77%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
494
PassesContext
345
427
Accurate passesContext
267
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.20
FoulsContext
12.30
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel130 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 130 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
4A. Obispo
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
20G. Til
34I. Saibari
9R. Pepi
27D. Man
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
10T. Bruns
70A. Hrustić
73W. Ould-Chikh
17T. van Gilst
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Heracles-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 3.14
- Conceded
- 1.43
Heracles · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 5–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 5–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 3–2 A | L 0–7 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | W 8–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Groningen | W 4–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 37 of 42 · 2.64 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game3.75 – 0.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 14 May 2025PSV Eindhoven4–1Heracles
- 18 Aug 2024Heracles1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 16 Feb 2024PSV Eindhoven2–0Heracles
- 4 Nov 2023Heracles0–6PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.07 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 2.47 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.87 | 4.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 10.87 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 11/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 11/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.47 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% 4/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 2/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 11.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.10 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Chilowicz 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.34
Red cards0.09league 0.23
Cards 5+37%league 32%
Fouls22.7league 21.9
Penalties0.33league 0.29
Home wins52%league 47%
PSV EindhovenNo previous matches with this referee.
HeraclesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven15 games · scored 46 · conceded 17
7
1
0-15
11
1
16-30
7
4
31-45
9
2
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
3
76-90
Heracles15 games · scored 23 · conceded 37
3
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
9
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 32 · conceded 12
5
0-15
7
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
