PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 74 pts · 30 played
WLLWW
First leg4–0
6–1Full time
PEC Zwolle
13th · 34 pts · 30 played
DDWLD
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for PEC Zwolle. PSV Eindhoven had 12.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 11.3 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days12.1 · 11.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
PSV Eindhoven80%
Draw12%
PEC Zwolle8%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw14%
PEC Zwolle7%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw11%
PEC Zwolle7%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Draw15%
PEC Zwolle11%
PSV Eindhoven78%
Draw14%
PEC Zwolle8%
Over 2.5 78%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 50
Team strength
PSV EindhovenPEC Zwolle
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
60
AttackIn forecast
17
64
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenPEC Zwolle
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
97%
Scored inContext
83%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.47
ShotsContext
9.73
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.66
41%
On target shareContext
36%
12.07
Shots in the boxContext
6.24
69%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.04
11.23
Shots allowedContext
16.43
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.07
3.60
BlocksContext
4.07
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.24
68%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
548
PassesContext
370
476
Accurate passesContext
290
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.83
FoulsContext
11.30
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.90
ShotsContext
12.40
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
40%
On target shareContext
36%
12.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
70%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.70
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.50
BlocksContext
4.10
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
68%
Save rateContext
68%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
545
PassesContext
395
472
Accurate passesContext
313
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.00
FoulsContext
12.80
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest11.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel126 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 11.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 9.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
1N. Olij(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
23J. Veerman
35J. van den Berg
11C. Driouech
20G. Til
19E. Bajraktarević
9R. Pepi
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
22K. de Rooij
25T. Oosting
18O. Velanas
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.14 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-1.8 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-2
- Scored
- 3.13
- Conceded
- 1.60
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-8
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–0 AW 6–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Utrecht | W 4–3 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Telstar | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heracles | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H | L 2–8 A |
| Heerenveen | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | L 1–6 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | L 0–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 71 of 87 · 2.45 per game | 34 of 87 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game4.40 – 0.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025PEC Zwolle0–4PSV Eindhoven
- 18 Jan 2025PEC Zwolle3–1PSV Eindhoven
- 26 Oct 2024PSV Eindhoven6–0PEC Zwolle
- 24 Feb 2024PEC Zwolle1–7PSV Eindhoven
- 12 Nov 2023PSV Eindhoven4–0PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 3.33 | 4.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 63% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 17% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| PSV Eindhoven | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.20 | 4.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.03 | 5.61 | |
| Match total | 11.23 | 9.43 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 24/30 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 24/30 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 18/30 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.47 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.27 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 9/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 7/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.60 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.40 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.30 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.52league 3.17
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+22%league 26%
Fouls19.4league 21.2
Penalties0.22league 0.22
Home wins58%league 45%
PSV Eindhoven5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Mar 26A · Telstar1–32
- W8 Feb 26A · Groningen2–11
- W22 Nov 25A · NAC Breda1–01
- W13 Jan 24H · Excelsior3–10
- W27 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L6 Dec 25A · Feyenoord1–61
- W4 May 25A · NAC Breda3–11
- W2 Sep 23A · Almere City FC2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven30 games · scored 84 · conceded 40
13
5
0-15
16
4
16-30
15
11
31-45
14
3
46-60
9
11
61-75
17
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle29 games · scored 40 · conceded 58
10
6
0-15
5
9
16-30
7
16
31-45
6
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
13
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
