PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven80.3%fair odds 1.25
Draw13.2%fair odds 7.60
Sparta Rotterdam6.6%fair odds 15.26
Expected goals2.83 – 0.73total 3.56
Likeliest score2–011.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.4%8.76
- 3–010.8%9.29
- 2–18.3%12.04
- 3–17.8%12.76
- 1–07.8%12.90
- 4–07.6%13.12
- 1–16.2%16.18
- 4–15.5%18.03
- 5–04.3%23.18
- 0–03.2%31.65
Winning margin
39.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 2.55
21.6%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.64
19.5%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.14
13.2%
Draw
fair 7.60
4.8%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 20.96
1.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 70.11
0.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 280.48
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
31%4+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 80.3% | 77.8% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 13.2% | 14.9% | -1.8 pp |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 6.6% | 7.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 63.6% | +5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.0% | 46.5% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.83 | 2.59 | +0.24 |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 0.73 | 0.69 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win80.3%1.25
- Draw13.2%7.60
- Sparta Rotterdam win6.6%15.26
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw93.4%1.07
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Sparta Rotterdam86.8%1.15
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw19.7%5.07
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven92.5%1.08
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam7.5%13.25
Goals
- Over 0.596.8%1.03
- Over 1.587.3%1.15
- Over 2.569.0%1.45
- Over 3.547.6%2.10
- Over 4.528.6%3.50
- Under 1.512.7%7.89
- Under 2.531.0%3.22
- Under 3.552.4%1.91
Both teams to score
- Yes49.0%2.04
- No51.0%1.96
- Yes and over 2.542.8%2.34
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes35.2%2.84
- Draw and yes10.0%10.01
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes3.8%26.21
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.594.1%1.06
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.577.4%1.29
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.553.8%1.86
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.551.7%1.93
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.516.6%6.04
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.53.8%26.58
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet48.3%2.07
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet5.9%16.95
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil45.1%2.22
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil2.7%36.51
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.560.8%1.64
- PSV Eindhoven −2.539.3%2.55
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.539.2%2.55
- Sparta Rotterdam +2.560.7%1.65
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.51.8%56.09
- PSV Eindhoven +1.598.2%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored4
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result45.2%
1X2 Brier0.532
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 40.5% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 3 of 4 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4390 | 0.4214 |
| Avg chance given to result | 51.5% | 53.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 3 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 4 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.