PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 22). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PSV Eindhoven had ? days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam ? and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
PSV Eindhoven80%
Draw13%
Sparta Rotterdam7%
PSV Eindhoven78%
Draw15%
Sparta Rotterdam7%
PSV Eindhoven80%
Draw13%
Sparta Rotterdam7%
PSV Eindhoven74%
Draw16%
Sparta Rotterdam10%
PSV Eindhoven78%
Draw15%
Sparta Rotterdam7%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.0
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 35
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
60
AttackIn forecast
32
64
DefenceIn forecast
17
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
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Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
20.40
ShotsContext
12.70
8.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
37%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
69%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.63
7.70
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.00
BlocksContext
5.10
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
66%
Save rateContext
73%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
564
PassesContext
383
490
Accurate passesContext
312
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.36
Team ratingContext
7.19
9.00
FoulsContext
9.00
7.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
22J. Schouten
34I. Saibari
7R. van Bommel
14A. Pléa
5I. Perišić
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Bakari
6J. Kitolano
10J. Toornstra
8P. Clement
7S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
11S. Mito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 5 Oct 2024PSV Eindhoven2–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 8 Oct 2023Sparta Rotterdam0–4PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.78 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.91league 2.50
Red cards0.06league 0.25
Cards 5+6%league 25%
Fouls16.2league 21.8
Penalties0.26league 0.25
Home wins54%league 50%
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 May 25H · Heracles4–10
- W5 Apr 25A · Groningen3–12
- L14 Dec 24A · Heerenveen0–10
- W1 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
- W7 Dec 23H · Heerenveen2–02
Sparta RotterdamNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV EindhovenSparta RotterdamPSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 11
5
4
0-15
7
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
