PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven78.5%fair odds 1.27
Draw14.1%fair odds 7.07
Telstar7.3%fair odds 13.66
Expected goals2.72 – 0.74total 3.47
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Telstar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Telstar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.65
- 3–010.5%9.53
- 2–18.6%11.61
- 1–08.2%12.26
- 3–17.8%12.79
- 4–07.1%13.99
- 1–16.7%15.02
- 4–15.3%18.79
- 5–03.9%25.69
- 0–03.5%28.96
Winning margin
36.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 2.73
21.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.62
20.2%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.94
14.1%
Draw
fair 7.07
5.3%
Telstar by 1
fair 18.92
1.6%
Telstar by 2
fair 61.77
0.4%
Telstar by 3+
fair 239.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
7%0
18%1
24%2
22%3
29%4+
Telstar goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 78.5% | 76.1% | +2.4 pp |
| Draw | 14.1% | 15.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Telstar win | 7.3% | 8.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 62.5% | +4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 47.2% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.72 | 2.51 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals Telstar | 0.74 | 0.71 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win78.5%1.27
- Draw14.1%7.07
- Telstar win7.3%13.66
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw92.7%1.08
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Telstar85.9%1.16
- Double chance Telstar or draw21.5%4.66
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven91.5%1.09
- Draw no bet Telstar8.5%11.73
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.4%1.16
- Over 2.567.3%1.49
- Over 3.545.6%2.19
- Over 4.526.8%3.72
- Under 1.513.6%7.36
- Under 2.532.7%3.06
- Under 3.554.4%1.84
Both teams to score
- Yes49.4%2.02
- No50.6%1.98
- Yes and over 2.542.7%2.34
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes34.5%2.90
- Draw and yes10.7%9.36
- Telstar win and yes4.2%23.76
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.593.4%1.07
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.575.6%1.32
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.551.2%1.95
- Telstar over 0.552.5%1.90
- Telstar over 1.517.1%5.83
- Telstar over 2.54.0%25.12
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet47.5%2.11
- Telstar clean sheet6.6%15.23
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil44.0%2.27
- Telstar win to nil3.1%32.13
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.558.3%1.71
- PSV Eindhoven −2.536.7%2.73
- Telstar +1.541.7%2.40
- Telstar +2.563.3%1.58
- Telstar −1.52.0%49.12
- PSV Eindhoven +1.598.0%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won60.7%
Avg chance given to result46.5%
1X2 Brier0.500
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right60.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.7% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.6% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 62.7% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4995 | 0.4951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Telstar 2–2 FC Volendam56·24·20
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.