PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 26). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (63% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PSV Eindhoven had 7.1 days of rest, Telstar 7 and had to travel 127 km.
Away travel127 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw14%
Telstar7%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Draw16%
Telstar8%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw14%
Telstar7%
PSV Eindhoven72%
Draw17%
Telstar11%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Draw16%
Telstar8%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Telstar
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
60
AttackIn forecast
24
64
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenTelstar
4.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+2.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
100%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.00
ShotsContext
15.67
7.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
38%
On target shareContext
40%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
65%
Box shareContext
68%
20%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.67
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
79%
Save rateContext
63%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
565
PassesContext
398
487
Accurate passesContext
325
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.27
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.33
FoulsContext
11.67
7.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+1.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
21.70
ShotsContext
12.60
8.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
41%
On target shareContext
38%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
69%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.22
BlocksContext
4.20
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
71%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
569
PassesContext
344
492
Accurate passesContext
270
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.40
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.50
FoulsContext
12.20
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km261 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel127 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 127 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 261 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
22J. Schouten
20G. Til
7R. van Bommel
5I. Perišić
27D. Man
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
21D. Koswal
2J. Hardeveld
17N. Rossen
8T. Owusu
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
7S. Hetli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Telstar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Telstar · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.67 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.67 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 12.34 | 14.00 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.44 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.75 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.44league 3.36
Red cards0.19league 0.11
Cards 5+13%league 32%
Fouls20.9league 22.6
Penalties0.13league 0.14
Home wins50%league 54%
PSV EindhovenNo previous matches with this referee.
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven3 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Telstar3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 37 · conceded 10
6
3
0-15
6
16-30
7
2
31-45
9
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Telstar5 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
