PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 81 pts · 33 played
WWWDW
First leg2–0
5–1Full time
Twente
3rd · 58 pts · 33 played
WWDDW
PSV Eindhoven61.0%fair odds 1.64
Draw19.8%fair odds 5.04
Twente19.2%fair odds 5.20
Expected goals2.36 – 1.28total 3.64
Likeliest score2–19.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Twente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Twente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%10.69
- 1–18.4%11.97
- 3–17.4%13.59
- 2–07.3%13.70
- 2–26.0%16.68
- 1–05.8%17.33
- 3–05.7%17.42
- 1–25.1%19.68
- 3–24.7%21.21
- 4–14.3%23.04
Winning margin
21.6%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 4.62
18.1%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.53
21.2%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.71
19.8%
Draw
fair 5.04
11.3%
Twente by 1
fair 8.82
5.3%
Twente by 2
fair 18.75
2.5%
Twente by 3+
fair 39.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
30%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Twente goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 61.0% | 59.0% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 19.8% | 21.2% | -1.4 pp |
| Twente win | 19.2% | 19.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 65.1% | +5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.8% | 62.1% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.36 | 2.16 | +0.20 |
| Expected goals Twente | 1.28 | 1.19 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win61.0%1.64
- Draw19.8%5.04
- Twente win19.2%5.20
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw80.8%1.24
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Twente80.2%1.25
- Double chance Twente or draw39.0%2.56
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven76.0%1.32
- Draw no bet Twente24.0%4.17
Goals
- Over 0.597.0%1.03
- Over 1.588.2%1.13
- Over 2.570.4%1.42
- Over 3.549.3%2.03
- Over 4.530.1%3.32
- Under 1.511.8%8.51
- Under 2.529.6%3.38
- Under 3.550.7%1.97
Both teams to score
- Yes65.8%1.52
- No34.2%2.93
- Yes and over 2.557.5%1.74
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes36.2%2.76
- Draw and yes16.8%5.96
- Twente win and yes12.8%7.81
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.590.5%1.10
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.568.3%1.47
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.542.0%2.38
- Twente over 0.572.2%1.38
- Twente over 1.536.7%2.73
- Twente over 2.513.9%7.21
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet27.8%3.60
- Twente clean sheet9.5%10.58
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil24.7%4.05
- Twente win to nil6.4%15.61
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.539.7%2.52
- PSV Eindhoven −2.521.6%4.62
- Twente +1.560.3%1.66
- Twente +2.578.4%1.28
- Twente −1.57.9%12.70
- PSV Eindhoven +1.592.1%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right62.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 111 | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.2% | 49.3% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.3% | 67.5% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 239 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5891 | 0.5824 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 239 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.