PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 81 pts · 33 played
WWWDW
First leg2–0
5–1Full time
Twente
3rd · 58 pts · 33 played
WWDDW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Twente. PSV Eindhoven had 6.9 days of rest, Twente 6.9 and had to travel 130 km.
Away travel130 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
PSV Eindhoven61%
Draw20%
Twente19%
PSV Eindhoven63%
Draw22%
Twente15%
PSV Eindhoven63%
Draw19%
Twente18%
PSV Eindhoven52%
Draw22%
Twente26%
PSV Eindhoven59%
Draw21%
Twente20%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 55
Team strength
PSV EindhovenTwente
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
60
AttackIn forecast
41
64
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenTwente
2.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.76
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
97%
Scored inContext
82%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
17.30
ShotsContext
17.30
7.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.39
41%
On target shareContext
37%
11.91
Shots in the boxContext
11.33
69%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.72
11.09
Shots allowedContext
10.45
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
3.54
BlocksContext
3.42
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.55
68%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
548
PassesContext
458
477
Accurate passesContext
372
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.79
FoulsContext
10.06
8.24
Fouls sufferedContext
9.52
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
100%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.90
ShotsContext
14.50
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
43%
On target shareContext
42%
12.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
69%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.22
BlocksContext
4.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
540
PassesContext
446
471
Accurate passesContext
358
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.09
9.50
FoulsContext
8.90
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km204 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel130 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 130 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 204 km | 305 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 83.2 | 67.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
31N. Fernandez
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
20G. Til
27D. Man
9R. Pepi
Twente
Confirmed XI
22P. Tytoń(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
42D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
10S. Lammers
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-2.1 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Twente+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-2
- Scored
- 3.31
- Conceded
- 1.56
Twente · Away
1.63points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-8-2
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.19
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 6–1 HW 4–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–0 AW 6–1 H | W 4–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 4–3 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Telstar | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Heracles | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 78 of 96 · 2.44 per game | 58 of 96 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Twente wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Twente0–2PSV Eindhoven
- 24 Apr 2025Twente1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 6 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven6–1Twente
- 25 Nov 2023Twente0–3PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.91 | 1.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 4.24 | 2.82 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 85% | 48% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 64% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 18% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.91 | 4.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.18 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 11.09 | 8.88 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 26/33 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 79% 26/33 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 19/33 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.42 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 2.97 | 3.33 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% 9/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 7/33 | 27% 9/33 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.30 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 2.20 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 3.11
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+29%league 26%
Fouls19.7league 21.2
Penalties0.25league 0.21
Home wins44%league 45%
PSV Eindhoven3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Jan 26A · Fortuna Sittard2–11
- W15 Mar 25A · Waalwijk3–00
- L18 Jan 25A · PEC Zwolle1–32
Twente6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W7 Feb 26H · Heerenveen5–01
- W30 Nov 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- L30 Mar 25A · Heracles1–22
- D9 Feb 25A · Heerenveen3–34
- W12 Jan 25H · Willem II6–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven33 games · scored 96 · conceded 44
15
6
0-15
17
5
16-30
16
11
31-45
15
4
46-60
12
11
61-75
21
7
76-90
Twente33 games · scored 58 · conceded 35
5
5
0-15
9
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
17
7
46-60
8
7
61-75
12
8
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 29 · conceded 16
4
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
