RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 30 pts · 29 played
DLDDW
First leg1–1
5–5Full time
Genk
7th · 41 pts · 29 played
WLWLW
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. RAAL La Louvière had 7 days of rest, Genk 3 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days7 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3
RAAL La Louvière29%
Draw28%
Genk43%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Draw27%
Genk40%
RAAL La Louvière29%
Draw28%
Genk43%
RAAL La Louvière23%
Draw27%
Genk50%
RAAL La Louvière30%
Draw28%
Genk43%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 41
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreGenk
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
15
AttackIn forecast
46
15
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreGenk
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
59%
Scored inContext
86%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.45
ShotsContext
14.93
3.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.55
30%
On target shareContext
37%
6.54
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
67%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.21
12.03
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.19
BlocksContext
3.26
3.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
79%
Save rateContext
68%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
273
PassesContext
531
195
Accurate passesContext
457
72%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.07
FoulsContext
9.93
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
14.50
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
63%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.30
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.25
BlocksContext
3.50
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
81%
Save rateContext
53%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
300
PassesContext
461
222
Accurate passesContext
388
74%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.30
FoulsContext
9.40
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel107 km742 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 210 km | 742 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 140 | 139.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
3N. Gillot
23J. Ito
15S. Lahssaini
11J. Liongola
18M. Ashimeru
22J. Afriyie
7P. Fall
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
44J. Kongolo
77Z. El Ouahdi
21I. Bangoura
10J. Ito
38D. Heymans
8B. Heynen
20K. Karetsas
29Robin Mirisola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-5
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.79
Genk · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 1–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Dender | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 29 of 84 · 1.04 per game | 40 of 84 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins1 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Genk1–1RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 1.97 | 2.86 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 62% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 72% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| RAAL La Louvière | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.34 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.21 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.79 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 15/29 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.59 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 3.72 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 7/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.50 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.84
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+54%league 40%
Fouls22.4league 22.7
Penalties0.15league 0.32
Home wins46%league 41%
RAAL La Louvière3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L5 Dec 25H · Dender1–21
- D24 Aug 25H · Union St. Gilloise0–02
- L2 Aug 25A · Gent0–11
Genk4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D25 Jan 26H · Cercle Brugge1–11
- L21 Sep 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–22
- L10 Aug 25A · Standard Liege1–22
- L23 Dec 23A · Anderlecht1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière29 games · scored 25 · conceded 32
3
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
11
76-90
Genk29 games · scored 41 · conceded 42
8
10
0-15
8
4
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
