Racing Santander
Attack+13%
Defense risk−16%
Our take
Racing Santander were slight favourites.
Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 43). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Valencia were without César Tárrega and Luis Rioja. Racing Santander had 22.1 days of rest, Valencia 21 and had to travel 528 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel528 kmRest days22.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Racing Santander45%
Draw24%
Valencia31%
Racing Santander40%
Draw26%
Valencia34%
Racing Santander43%
Draw24%
Valencia33%
Racing Santander37%
Draw24%
Valencia38%
Racing Santander45%
Draw24%
Valencia31%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Santander)
18°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 82%
RefereeLuis Bestard Servera
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 25
Team strength
Racing Santander
Valencia
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
42
AttackIn forecast
39
22
DefenceIn forecast
52
52
Form indexContext
27
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack+22%
Defense risk−10%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Racing SantanderValencia
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
71%
Scored inContext
43%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.29
ShotsContext
10.57
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
39%
On target shareContext
26%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
65%
Box shareContext
52%
15%
ConversionContext
5%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.29
16.71
Shots allowedContext
15.29
7.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.71
BlocksContext
4.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
60%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
427
PassesContext
431
350
Accurate passesContext
357
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.29
FoulsContext
10.57
14.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.80
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
42%
On target shareContext
29%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
67%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.10
15.70
Shots allowedContext
13.00
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.90
BlocksContext
3.44
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
432
PassesContext
407
359
Accurate passesContext
332
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.80
FoulsContext
10.40
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Racing Santander
WLWLL
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 6 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Valencia
LLLWL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel528 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 27 · 3 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Racing Santander |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.1La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 528 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
24J. Belocian
5Pablo Ramón
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
10Iñigo Vicente
8André Almeida
23Iván Martín
20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
12J. de Haas
18Pepelu
4M. Diakhaby
24Pablo Maffeo
8Javi Guerra
2G. Rodríguez
23F. Ugrinic
19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Racing Santander
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −1.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF S. Eriksson Rotation 6.55 Def −1.9%
Valencia
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −38.6% · Defence line −17.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF César Tárrega Starter 6.54 Def −11.4%
- ATT Luis Rioja Starter 6.79 Att −19.4%
- ATT A. Danjuma Rotation 6.74 Att −7.2%
- ATT U. Sadiq Rotation 6.72 Att −6.6%
- DEF Copete Rotation 6.71 Def −3.6%
- ATT Diego López Rotation 6.66 Att −5.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Racing Santander+2.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Valencia-2.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Racing Santander · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Valencia · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Racing Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 0–5 A | D 0–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–7 A | L 0–5 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Racing Santander | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 4.57 | 2.43 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Racing Santander | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.57 | 3.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Racing Santander | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 8.14 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.42 | 4.00 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Racing Santander | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.20 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.90 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Bestard Servera 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.16league 4.28
Red cards0.24league 0.29
Cards 5+72%league 54%
Fouls27.5league 24.8
Penalties0.20league 0.37
Home wins28%league 46%
Racing Santander3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Mar 26H · Cordoba4–32
- W23 Nov 25A · Burgos2–05
- W30 Aug 25H · AD Ceuta FC4–10
ValenciaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Racing Santander7 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
76-90
Valencia7 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
2
6
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
8
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
