Racing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Racing Santander. Racing Santander had ? days of rest, Villarreal 83.8 and had to travel 498 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel498 kmRest days? · 83.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Racing Santander33%
Draw25%
Villarreal43%
Racing Santander30%
Draw26%
Villarreal44%
Racing Santander33%
Draw25%
Villarreal43%
Racing Santander26%
Draw23%
Villarreal51%
Racing Santander32%
Draw24%
Villarreal43%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Santander)
Warm
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 71%
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 19
Team strength
Racing Santander
Villarreal
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
42
AttackIn forecast
76
22
DefenceIn forecast
73
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Racing SantanderVillarreal
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
—
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.80
8.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
50%
On target shareContext
40%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
70%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
18%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.20
BlocksContext
4.11
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
58%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
423
PassesContext
437
353
Accurate passesContext
370
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.98
14.60
FoulsContext
9.80
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Racing Santander
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest83.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel498 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Racing Santander |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 83.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 498 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
5Pablo Ramón
22Pedro Felipe
2Álvaro Mantilla
36Sergio Martinez
8G. Puerta
10Iñigo Vicente
20Sergio Canales
11Andrés Martín
12Asier Villalibre
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
20Carlos Romero
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
10Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Racing Santander
Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Racing Santander+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Racing Santander · Home
No home games yet this season.
Villarreal · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Racing Santander | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 58% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Racing Santander | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | — | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% | |
| Failed to score | — | 20% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Racing Santander | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.50 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Racing Santander | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.30 | 8.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 7.50
Red cards0.00league 1.00
Cards 5+37%league 100%
Fouls26.6league 32.5
Penalties0.26league 1.00
Home wins58%league 100%
Racing SantanderNo previous matches with this referee.
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Feb 26A · Getafe1–23
- W27 Sep 25H · Athletic Club1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Racing SantanderVillarrealRacing Santander10 games · scored 28 · conceded 15
5
3
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
