Rangers vs Genk – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow

Rangers

0–1Full time

Genk

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rangers were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rangers had ? days of rest, Genk 4.3 and had to travel 844 km.

Away travel844 kmRest days? · 4.3Matches / 14d0 · 3

Rangers48%

Draw25%

Genk27%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.24

Rangers47%

Draw26%

Genk27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Rangers48%

Draw25%

Genk27%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.24

Rangers40%

Draw26%

Genk34%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.39

Rangers47%

Draw26%

Genk27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Glasgow)

No weather data yet

RefereeMatej Jug

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 19

Team strength

Rangers

Genk

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

40 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

38 AttackIn forecast 46

34 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rangers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rangers

Genk

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.19

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

— Goals minus xGContext +0.41

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.44 ShotsContext 15.60

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

27% On target shareContext 37%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.63

61% Box shareContext 61%

6% ConversionContext 10%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.89 Shots allowedContext 10.70

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.63 BlocksContext 2.89

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

70% Save rateContext 68%

57% PossessionIn forecast 63%

497 PassesContext 538

427 Accurate passesContext 475

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.67 FoulsContext 9.90

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rangers

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genk

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel844 km164 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rangers	Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	4.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	844 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	164 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	2.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rangers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Butland(G)

30J. Meghoma 13D. Cornelius 5J. Souttar 2J. Tavernier

11Thelo Aasgaard 43N. Raskin

23D. Gassama 10M. Diomande 47M. Moore

9Youssef Chermiti

Genk Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1H. Van Crombrugge(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

21I. Bangoura

19Y. Medina 8B. Heynen 17P. Hrošovský 7J. Steuckers

9H. Oh

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rangers Absences are shown before kick-off

Genk Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rangers+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Genk+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rangers · Home No home games yet this season.

Genk · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Rangers	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.95
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Rangers	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.25
Conceded per game	—	1.50
Match goals	—	2.75	2.95
Over 1.5	—	88%
Over 2.5	—	63%	57%
Over 3.5	—	13%
Both teams scored	—	88%	59%
Clean sheets	—	0%
Failed to score	—	13%
Games	0	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rangers	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Rangers	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	5.80
Corners conceded	5.33	3.90
Match total	12.00	9.70	9.18
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	1.20	2.20
Match total	3.80	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matej Jug 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.16league 4.55

Red cards0.26league 0.00

Cards 5+68%league 55%

Fouls24.9league 25.2

Penalties0.32league 0.18

Home wins63%league 45%

Rangers

No previous matches with this referee.

Genk

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.