UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 20:00 Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow
Rangers 33rd · 1 pts · 6 played
1–0Full time
Ludogorets 24th · 7 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Rangers were slight favourites.

Rangers were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 26). Rangers had 42.1 days of rest, Ludogorets 42.1 and had to travel 2,572 km.

Away travel2,572 kmRest days42.1 · 42.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rangers55%
Draw24%
Ludogorets21%
Expected goals 1.83 – 1.05
Rangers55%
Draw25%
Ludogorets21%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01
Rangers56%
Draw24%
Ludogorets20%
Expected goals 1.84 – 1.03
Rangers47%
Draw26%
Ludogorets27%
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.18
Rangers54%
Draw25%
Ludogorets21%
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.03
Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)

No weather data yet

Referee · LithuaniaManfredas Lukjancukas
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 23

Team strength

RangersLudogorets
43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 27
38 AttackIn forecast 27
34 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rangers

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ludogorets

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RangersLudogorets
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.65
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01
-0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
50% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.67 ShotsContext 14.17
3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 28%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
74% Box shareContext 60%
5% ConversionContext 13%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.83
14.17 Shots allowedContext 14.00
4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
4.83 BlocksContext 2.75
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
64% Save rateContext 62%
49% PossessionIn forecast 46%
396 PassesContext 412
328 Accurate passesContext 341
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.76
12.67 FoulsContext 10.67
15.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.65
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01
— Goals minus xGContext -0.05
100% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.90 ShotsContext 14.80
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78
39% On target shareContext 29%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.13
70% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.70
12.20 Shots allowedContext 13.80
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70
3.50 BlocksContext 3.13
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
78% Save rateContext 61%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
424 PassesContext 398
350 Accurate passesContext 327
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.77
11.20 FoulsContext 12.10
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rangers
Rest42.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Ludogorets
Rest42.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,572 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rangers Ludogorets
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec42.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,572 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rangers Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1J. Butland(G)
30J. Meghoma 37E. Fernandez 24Y. Djiga 3M. Aarons
10M. Diomande 43N. Raskin 11Thelo Aasgaard
23D. Gassama 9Youssef Chermiti 47M. Moore
+10 more reported missing outside this XI
Ludogorets Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
39H. Bonmann(G)
3A. Nedyalkov 4Dinis Almeida 24O. Verdon 17Son
23Deroy Duarte 30Pedro Naressi
77Erick Marcus 11Caio Vidal 14P. Stanić
29E. Bille
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rangers Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ludogorets Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Rangers-0.6 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Ludogorets+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Rangers · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
0.33
Conceded
1.33
Ludogorets · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentRangersLudogorets
Ferencvarosi TC L 1–2 A L 1–3 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

RangersLudogoretsForecast
Scored per game 0.501.83
Conceded per game 1.832.33
Match goals 2.334.17 2.88
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 50%83% 55%
Over 3.5 0%67%
Both teams scored 50%83% 55%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
RangersLudogoretsForecast
Scored per game 0.501.83
Conceded per game 1.832.33
Match goals 2.334.17 2.88
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 50%83% 55%
Over 3.5 0%67%
Both teams scored 50%83% 55%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RangersLudogoretsLeague
Corners
Corners won4.673.00
Corners conceded3.504.17
Match total8.177.179.10
Over 8.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 9.550% 3/617% 1/6
Over 10.50% 0/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards2.002.33
Match total3.504.334.35
Over 3.533% 2/683% 5/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
RangersLudogoretsLeague
Corners
Corners won5.803.00
Corners conceded5.004.70
Match total10.807.709.10
Over 8.590% 9/1040% 4/10
Over 9.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Over 10.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards1.901.90
Opponent cards1.802.50
Match total3.704.404.35
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Manfredas Lukjancukas Lithuania · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 4.12
Red cards0.35league 0.21
Cards 5+57%league 42%
Fouls21.4league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins57%league 49%
Rangers

No previous matches with this referee.

Ludogorets1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • W24 Sep 25A · Malmo FF2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Rangers6 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
Ludogorets6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 0-15
2 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Rangers10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
3 0-15
4 16-30
1 6 31-45
1 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg Maccabi Tel Aviv 10 Feyenoord Sturm Graz 30 Brann FC Midtjylland 33 Malmo FF FK Crvena Zvezda 01 Bologna Celtic 22 BSC Young Boys Lyon 01 Plzen FC Porto 11 Fenerbahce Aston Villa 01 PAOK Real Betis 20 Nice GO Ahead Eagles 31 Utrecht Genk 02 SC Braga Nottingham Forest 10 Rangers Ludogorets 10 AS Roma VfB Stuttgart 20 Celta Vigo Lille 21 Red Bull Salzburg FC Basel 1893 31 Dinamo Zagreb FCSB 41 Ferencvarosi TC Panathinaikos 11