Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 48). Rayo Vallecano had 2.9 days of rest, Espanyol 3.1 and had to travel 497 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel497 kmRest days2.9 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano50%
Draw24%
Espanyol26%
Rayo Vallecano49%
Draw25%
Espanyol26%
Rayo Vallecano51%
Draw23%
Espanyol26%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw25%
Espanyol33%
Rayo Vallecano50%
Draw24%
Espanyol27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
Heat stress
35°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 14%
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 45
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
61
AttackIn forecast
36
60
DefenceIn forecast
51
38
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoEspanyol
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
10.60
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
48%
On target shareContext
34%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
62%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
4.00
BlocksContext
3.25
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.75
58%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
349
PassesContext
378
278
Accurate passesContext
307
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.20
FoulsContext
18.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.40
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
42%
On target shareContext
37%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
56%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.78
4.30
BlocksContext
4.22
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
389
PassesContext
357
315
Accurate passesContext
281
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.20
FoulsContext
15.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
LDLWL
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Espanyol
WLLDW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel497 km696 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 56 · 7 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 497 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 696 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
15Mujaid Sadick
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
6P. Ciss
8Unai López
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
14G. Tsitaishvili
10Sergio Camello
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
20Gabriel Moscardo
4Urko González
3Q. Hartman
26Rafel Bauzà
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Espanyol+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Espanyol · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws4 Espanyol wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.13
Over 2.538%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 23 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano1–0Espanyol
- 7 Dec 2025Espanyol1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 4 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano0–4Espanyol
- 31 Aug 2024Espanyol2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Espanyol
- 19 Aug 2022Espanyol0–2Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 12.80 | 7.34 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.20 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.51 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.90 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 4.10
Red cards0.29league 0.24
Cards 5+58%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.33
Home wins36%league 45%
Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.5.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- L1 Feb 26A · Real Madrid1–29
- W15 May 24H · Granada CF2–15
- D7 Oct 23A · Sevilla2–22
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Mar 26H · Getafe1–22
- W30 Nov 25A · Celta Vigo1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano5 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Espanyol5 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
