La Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 7 · 16:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel317 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Rayo Vallecano—%
Draw—%
Osasuna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 20 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
61 AttackIn forecast 50
60 DefenceIn forecast 50
66 Form indexContext 31
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
100% Scored inContext 67%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.38 ShotsContext 10.78
4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
32% On target shareContext 40%
7.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
55% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.63
15.88 Shots allowedContext 13.22
5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
4.00 BlocksContext 3.89
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
61% Save rateContext 51%
51% PossessionIn forecast 46%
406 PassesContext 390
334 Accurate passesContext 316
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.54
12.88 FoulsContext 14.67
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.67
0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
90% Scored inContext 60%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.00 ShotsContext 10.80
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
32% On target shareContext 41%
6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
52% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44
15.70 Shots allowedContext 12.50
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
4.30 BlocksContext 3.70
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
67% Save rateContext 53%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
403 PassesContext 373
331 Accurate passesContext 298
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.54
13.20 FoulsContext 15.20
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km678 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel317 km696 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rayo Vallecano Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb7La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways678 km696 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rayo Vallecano Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Osasuna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Osasuna · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.50
Conceded
3.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentRayo VallecanoOsasuna
Getafe D 1–1 A W 1–0 H
Espanyol W 2–1 H L 0–2 H
Racing Santander W 3–2 H W 2–0 H
Alaves D 1–1 H L 2–5 A
Points8 of 12 · 2.00 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws5 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.60 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets0% · 30%
  • 19 Sep 2026Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 24 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano1–3Osasuna
  • 14 Sep 2025Osasuna2–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 19 Jan 2025Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 16 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano3–1Osasuna
  • 20 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rayo VallecanoOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.501.11
Conceded per game 2.132.00
Match goals 3.633.11
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 63%44%
Over 3.5 38%33%
Both teams scored 100%44%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games89
Rayo VallecanoOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.601.00
Conceded per game 1.801.90
Match goals 3.402.90
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 90%40%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rayo VallecanoOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.634.00
Corners conceded6.384.50
Match total12.018.509.91
Over 8.563% 5/838% 3/8
Over 9.563% 5/838% 3/8
Over 10.563% 5/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.752.67
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total5.254.674.73
Over 3.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 4.563% 5/856% 5/9
Rayo VallecanoOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.104.00
Corners conceded6.504.22
Match total11.608.229.91
Over 8.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 9.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards3.102.60
Opponent cards2.601.90
Match total5.704.504.73
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Real Betis Mar 716:00 Atletico Madrid Celta Vigo Mar 716:00 Valencia Levante Mar 716:00 Villarreal Real Madrid Mar 716:00 Sevilla Real Sociedad Mar 716:00 Espanyol Racing Santander Mar 716:00 Alaves Athletic Club Mar 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Getafe Mar 716:00 Rayo Vallecano Osasuna Mar 716:00 Elche Malaga Mar 716:00