La Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 7 · 16:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel741 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sevilla—%
Draw—%
Real Sociedad—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 20 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sevilla and Real Sociedad. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SevillaReal Sociedad
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
48 AttackIn forecast 62
57 DefenceIn forecast 48
67 Form indexContext 81
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SevillaReal Sociedad
1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.53
100% Scored inContext 67%
22% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.78 ShotsContext 14.11
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44
37% On target shareContext 39%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
61% Box shareContext 56%
13% ConversionContext 13%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.14
12.67 Shots allowedContext 16.56
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
3.29 BlocksContext 4.00
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
60% Save rateContext 73%
41% PossessionIn forecast 49%
344 PassesContext 467
267 Accurate passesContext 399
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.89
14.67 FoulsContext 12.11
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.62
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.80
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
36% On target shareContext 38%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
59% Box shareContext 55%
12% ConversionContext 14%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.75
12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.80
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
3.00 BlocksContext 3.90
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
60% Save rateContext 70%
42% PossessionIn forecast 50%
353 PassesContext 481
278 Accurate passesContext 410
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.82
15.20 FoulsContext 12.40
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,415 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel741 km1,038 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sevilla Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb7La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km741 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,415 km1,038 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75
Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.40
Conceded
2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentSevillaReal Sociedad
Real Madrid L 1–4 A L 1–4 A
Deportivo La Coruna W 1–0 A W 3–2 H
Valencia W 1–0 H W 3–2 A
Espanyol D 1–1 A W 2–1 H
Atletico Madrid L 1–3 H L 0–3 H
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Sevilla wins2 draws5 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 30%
  • 4 May 2026Sevilla1–0Real Sociedad
  • 24 Oct 2025Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
  • 9 Mar 2025Real Sociedad0–1Sevilla
  • 3 Nov 2024Sevilla0–2Real Sociedad
  • 2 Mar 2024Sevilla3–2Real Sociedad
  • 26 Nov 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SevillaReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.561.89
Conceded per game 1.781.89
Match goals 3.333.78
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 67%78%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 78%67%
Clean sheets 22%11%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games99
SevillaReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.401.90
Conceded per game 1.701.90
Match goals 3.103.80
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 70%80%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SevillaReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won3.007.00
Corners conceded3.564.89
Match total6.5611.899.91
Over 8.522% 2/9100% 9/9
Over 9.522% 2/978% 7/9
Over 10.511% 1/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards3.332.33
Opponent cards2.112.56
Match total5.444.894.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.556% 5/978% 7/9
SevillaReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won3.007.00
Corners conceded3.604.70
Match total6.6011.709.91
Over 8.520% 2/1090% 9/10
Over 9.520% 2/1080% 8/10
Over 10.510% 1/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.002.40
Match total5.104.604.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Real Betis Mar 716:00 Atletico Madrid Celta Vigo Mar 716:00 Valencia Levante Mar 716:00 Villarreal Real Madrid Mar 716:00 Sevilla Real Sociedad Mar 716:00 Espanyol Racing Santander Mar 716:00 Alaves Athletic Club Mar 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Getafe Mar 716:00 Rayo Vallecano Osasuna Mar 716:00 Elche Malaga Mar 716:00