Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Rayo Vallecano had 4.2 days of rest, Oviedo 3.9 and had to travel 372 km.
Away travel372 kmRest days4.2 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano55%
Draw26%
Oviedo19%
Rayo Vallecano59%
Draw23%
Oviedo18%
Rayo Vallecano55%
Draw26%
Oviedo19%
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw28%
Oviedo24%
Rayo Vallecano56%
Draw25%
Oviedo19%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 129
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
61
AttackIn forecast
23
60
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoOviedo
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
60%
Scored inContext
40%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.84
ShotsContext
9.44
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.24
Shots in the boxContext
6.04
56%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.52
11.56
Shots allowedContext
14.56
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.72
3.44
BlocksContext
3.68
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.42
66%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
424
PassesContext
372
351
Accurate passesContext
303
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.72
FoulsContext
12.60
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
55%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
60%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
429
PassesContext
346
353
Accurate passesContext
271
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.90
FoulsContext
14.00
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel372 km626 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 372 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 781 km | 626 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
6P. Ciss
17Unai López
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
12I. Akhomach
19Jorge de Frutos
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
12Dani Calvo
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Oviedo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.83
Oviedo · Away
0.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-8
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Points | 26 of 72 · 1.08 per game | 16 of 72 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Rayo Vallecano wins1 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 23 Nov 2025Oviedo0–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.24 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 36% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 32% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 3.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.40 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 19/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 5.08 | 3.64 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 19/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 15/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.80 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.90 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.05league 4.21
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls25.0league 24.6
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins40%league 47%
Rayo Vallecano11 with this referee
Record1-6-4
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- L24 Sep 25A · Atletico Madrid2–34
- L4 Apr 25H · Espanyol0–42
- D18 Dec 24A · Villarreal1–13
- W18 Aug 24A · Real Sociedad2–14
- D31 Mar 24A · Celta Vigo0–03
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano25 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
9
3
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Oviedo24 games · scored 16 · conceded 40
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
9
61-75
4
12
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
