Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 14 pts · 11 played
LWWWL
0–0Full time
Real Madrid
1st · 30 pts · 11 played
LWWWW
Rayo Vallecano18.6%fair odds 5.38
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Real Madrid57.8%fair odds 1.73
Expected goals0.96 – 1.86total 2.82
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rayo Vallecano ↓ · Real Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rayo Vallecano goals, columns Real Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.91
- 0–110.5%9.51
- 0–210.3%9.72
- 1–29.9%10.10
- 0–06.5%15.31
- 0–36.4%15.69
- 1–36.1%16.32
- 1–05.2%19.34
- 2–15.1%19.52
- 2–24.8%21.02
Winning margin
1.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 58.09
4.8%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 20.78
12.1%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 8.29
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
23.8%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.19
18.0%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.57
16.0%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 6.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Rayo Vallecano goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Real Madrid goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 18.6% | 18.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Real Madrid win | 57.8% | 57.8% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 54.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.7% | 53.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 0.96 | 0.98 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.86 | 1.88 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rayo Vallecano win18.6%5.38
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Real Madrid win57.8%1.73
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw42.2%2.37
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or Real Madrid76.4%1.31
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw81.4%1.23
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano24.3%4.11
- Draw no bet Real Madrid75.7%1.32
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.29
- Over 2.553.5%1.87
- Over 3.531.2%3.20
- Over 4.515.5%6.44
- Under 1.522.2%4.50
- Under 2.546.5%2.15
- Under 3.568.8%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes52.7%1.90
- No47.3%2.11
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes9.5%10.49
- Draw and yes17.0%5.87
- Real Madrid win and yes26.1%3.83
Team goals
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.561.8%1.62
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.525.0%4.00
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.57.3%13.63
- Real Madrid over 0.584.4%1.18
- Real Madrid over 1.555.4%1.80
- Real Madrid over 2.528.5%3.51
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet15.6%6.41
- Real Madrid clean sheet38.2%2.62
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil9.1%11.02
- Real Madrid win to nil31.7%3.15
Handicap
- Rayo Vallecano −1.56.5%15.30
- Rayo Vallecano −2.51.7%58.09
- Real Madrid +1.593.5%1.07
- Real Madrid +2.598.3%1.02
- Real Madrid −1.534.0%2.94
- Rayo Vallecano +1.566.0%1.51
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored116
Favourite won55.2%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right59.5%
BTTS called right56.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 18 | 37.8% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 50 | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 54.0% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 64.1% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 75.0% | 91.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 85 of 116 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5492 | 0.5403 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.5% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 58.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 85 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 116 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.