Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 14 pts · 11 played
LWWWL
0–0Full time
Real Madrid
1st · 30 pts · 11 played
LWWWW
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 55). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Rayo Vallecano had 8.1 days of rest, Real Madrid 7.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano19%
Draw24%
Real Madrid58%
Rayo Vallecano18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Rayo Vallecano18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Rayo Vallecano14%
Draw21%
Real Madrid65%
Rayo Vallecano19%
Draw23%
Real Madrid58%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 30
Team strength
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
61
AttackIn forecast
89
60
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.36
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
2.27
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
64%
Scored inContext
100%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.27
ShotsContext
19.18
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.36
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
11.91
62%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.36
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.73
BlocksContext
3.89
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
58%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
438
PassesContext
593
366
Accurate passesContext
531
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.19
12.36
FoulsContext
11.36
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
11.82
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
2.33
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.00
ShotsContext
18.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
34%
On target shareContext
40%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
61%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
466
PassesContext
596
395
Accurate passesContext
534
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.30
FoulsContext
11.80
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
6P. Ciss
17Unai López
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
19Jorge de Frutos
7Isi Palazón
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
17Raúl Asencio
8F. Valverde
6E. Camavinga
15A. Güler
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
21Brahim Díaz
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Real Madrid-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Real Madrid · Away
2.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 A | L 2–5 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Rayo Vallecano wins3 draws4 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 9 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Madrid
- 18 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Real Madrid
- 5 Nov 2023Real Madrid0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 24 May 2023Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 7 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano3–2Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 2.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 3.27 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 73% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 55% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 0% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.27 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 11.36 | 9.45 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 9/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 4.00 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 12.89 | 8.89 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 89% 8/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.98
Red cards0.23league 0.25
Cards 5+40%league 42%
Fouls25.8league 24.5
Penalties0.40league 0.35
Home wins53%league 49%
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L25 Aug 25A · Athletic Club0–14
- D5 Nov 23A · Real Madrid0–05
Real Madrid5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · Espanyol2–02
- W20 Apr 25H · Athletic Club1–01
- W16 Mar 24A · Osasuna4–22
- W10 Feb 24H · Girona4–01
- D5 Nov 23H · Rayo Vallecano0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano11 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Real Madrid11 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
9
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
1
0-15
6
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
