La Liga Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 26 · 13:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 12th · 38 pts · 32 played
3–3Full time
Real Sociedad 8th · 42 pts · 32 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 2.8 days of rest, Real Sociedad 3.8 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad32%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.28
Rayo Vallecano40%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad33%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad31%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.27
Rayo Vallecano35%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad39%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.44
Rayo Vallecano43%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad32%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.35
Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
  • Cards per match 5.0
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 15

Team strength

Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 56
61 AttackIn forecast 62
60 DefenceIn forecast 48
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53
1.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.25
63% Scored inContext 88%
31% Clean sheetsContext 9%
13.22 ShotsContext 12.63
4.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.66
33% On target shareContext 37%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.66
56% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 12%
2.52 OffsidesContext 2.81
11.78 Shots allowedContext 12.56
3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13
3.71 BlocksContext 3.28
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 66%
54% PossessionIn forecast 51%
413 PassesContext 442
341 Accurate passesContext 367
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.80
12.47 FoulsContext 13.91
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.06
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.47
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43
-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.70 ShotsContext 12.20
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.40
58% Box shareContext 61%
9% ConversionContext 16%
2.57 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.70 Shots allowedContext 12.30
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11
3.89 BlocksContext 2.30
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
68% Save rateContext 67%
49% PossessionIn forecast 54%
334 PassesContext 483
262 Accurate passesContext 410
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.76
12.70 FoulsContext 12.40
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Real Sociedad
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rayo Vallecano Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,098 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.18.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Dani Cárdenas(G)
3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu
6P. Ciss 17Unai López
14Carlos Martín 7Isi Palazón 12I. Akhomach
10Sergio Camello
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Real Sociedad Confirmed XI
4-4-2
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez 16D. Ćaleta-Car 31Jon Martín 2J. Aramburu
7Barrenetxea 8Beñat Turrientes 18Carlos Soler 14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal 9O. Óskarsson
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Rayo Vallecano+0.2 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • Real Sociedad+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.63points per game · 16 home games
W-D-L
6-8-2
Scored
1.13
Conceded
0.69
Real Sociedad · Away 0.93points per game · 15 away games
W-D-L
3-5-7
Scored
1.13
Conceded
1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

OpponentRayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
Espanyol W 1–0 HL 0–1 A D 2–2 H
Mallorca L 0–3 AW 2–1 H W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Elche W 1–0 HL 0–4 A W 3–1 HD 1–1 A
Barcelona L 0–1 AD 1–1 H W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Levante D 1–1 HW 3–0 A W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Sevilla D 1–1 AL 0–1 H W 2–1 H
Oviedo W 3–0 HD 0–0 A D 3–3 HL 0–1 A
Athletic Club D 1–1 HL 0–1 A D 1–1 AW 3–2 H
Real Betis D 1–1 AD 0–0 H L 1–3 A
Atletico Madrid W 3–0 HL 2–3 A L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Real Madrid L 1–2 AD 0–0 H L 1–4 AL 1–2 H
Osasuna L 1–3 HL 0–2 A W 3–1 HW 3–1 A
Celta Vigo L 0–3 AD 1–1 H W 3–1 HD 1–1 A
Getafe D 1–1 H L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Valencia D 1–1 H D 1–1 A
Villarreal L 0–4 A L 1–3 AL 2–3 H
Alaves W 1–0 H D 3–3 HL 0–1 A
Girona W 3–1 A L 1–2 H
Points35 of 93 · 1.13 per game42 of 93 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins4 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.22 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%
  • 5 Oct 2025Real Sociedad0–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 16 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad
  • 18 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Rayo Vallecano
  • 27 Jan 2024Real Sociedad0–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 29 Oct 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad
  • 22 Apr 2023Real Sociedad2–1Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rayo VallecanoReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 0.941.53
Conceded per game 1.191.53
Match goals 2.133.06 2.81
Over 1.5 66%81%
Over 2.5 38%59% 53%
Over 3.5 16%41%
Both teams scored 41%78% 57%
Clean sheets 31%9%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games3232
Rayo VallecanoReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.201.90
Conceded per game 0.801.90
Match goals 2.003.80 2.81
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 30%70% 53%
Over 3.5 0%70%
Both teams scored 40%70% 57%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rayo VallecanoReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.945.78
Corners conceded5.004.50
Match total10.9410.289.60
Over 8.578% 25/3269% 22/32
Over 9.563% 20/3253% 17/32
Over 10.559% 19/3247% 15/32
Cards
Cards2.752.13
Opponent cards2.342.34
Match total5.094.474.52
Over 3.578% 25/3256% 18/32
Over 4.559% 19/3234% 11/32
Rayo VallecanoReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.405.60
Corners conceded4.904.60
Match total10.3010.209.60
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.401.90
Opponent cards3.301.70
Match total5.703.604.52
Over 3.5100% 10/1040% 4/10
Over 4.580% 8/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 4.26
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+53%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins53%league 49%
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W5 Oct 25A · Real Sociedad1–02
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W7 Feb 26H · Elche3–10
  • L5 Oct 25H · Rayo Vallecano0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Rayo Vallecano32 games · scored 30 · conceded 38
2 5 0-15
3 5 16-30
10 6 31-45
4 6 46-60
5 6 61-75
6 10 76-90
Real Sociedad32 games · scored 49 · conceded 49
3 8 0-15
8 6 16-30
10 10 31-45
10 9 46-60
7 4 61-75
11 12 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
2 5 0-15
6 4 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Real Betis Real Madrid 11 Alaves Mallorca 21 Getafe Barcelona 02 Valencia Girona 21 Atletico Madrid Athletic Club 32 Rayo Vallecano Real Sociedad 33 Oviedo Elche 12 Osasuna Sevilla 21 Villarreal Celta Vigo 21 Espanyol Levante 00