RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 30). RB Leipzig had 7.8 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 336 km.
Away travel336 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
RB Leipzig64%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
RB Leipzig63%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
RB Leipzig64%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
RB Leipzig57%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
RB Leipzig63%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 47
Team strength
RB Leipzig
1. FC Heidenheim
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
76
AttackIn forecast
48
53
DefenceIn forecast
39
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB Leipzig1. FC Heidenheim
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
57%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.60
16.20
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
5.00
BlocksContext
3.38
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
59%
Save rateContext
61%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
462
PassesContext
405
385
Accurate passesContext
328
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.60
FoulsContext
10.20
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km721 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel336 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Aug | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 336 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 721 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
24X. Schlager
6E. Banzuzi
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
9S. Bakayoko
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
30N. Dorsch
20L. Kerber
17M. Honsak
8Léo Scienza
22A. Ibrahimović
29M. Kaufmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
No home games yet this season.
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 RB Leipzig wins1 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2025RB Leipzig2–21. FC Heidenheim
- 6 Oct 20241. FC Heidenheim0–1RB Leipzig
- 20 Apr 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2RB Leipzig
- 2 Dec 2023RB Leipzig2–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 4.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 4.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| RB Leipzig | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 7.78 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.51league 5.10
Red cards0.17league 0.30
Cards 5+51%league 60%
Fouls22.3league 24.7
Penalties0.23league 0.40
Home wins36%league 30%
RB Leipzig5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–41
- D30 Mar 24H · FSV Mainz 050–02
- L13 Jan 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–10
- W25 Aug 23H · VfB Stuttgart5–11
- L18 Dec 21H · Arminia Bielefeld0–20
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Apr 25H · Bayern München0–43
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- L2 Nov 24A · Holstein Kiel0–15
- L9 Mar 24A · FC Augsburg0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig1 games · scored 0 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
7
61-75
2
3
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
