RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
3rd · 29 pts · 14 played
LWDWL
1–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 26 pts · 14 played
WWLLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 69). RB Leipzig had 7.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
RB Leipzig36%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen38%
RB Leipzig36%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen37%
RB Leipzig36%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen38%
RB Leipzig29%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen46%
RB Leipzig36%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen37%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 53
Team strength
RB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
76
AttackIn forecast
87
53
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
86%
Scored inContext
86%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
15.50
ShotsContext
13.93
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
36%
On target shareContext
35%
10.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
65%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.64
Shots allowedContext
10.93
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
4.07
BlocksContext
2.64
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
71%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
470
PassesContext
604
397
Accurate passesContext
540
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.21
FoulsContext
8.86
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.10
ShotsContext
13.30
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
40%
On target shareContext
32%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
63%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.14
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.10
BlocksContext
3.38
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
78%
Save rateContext
82%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
490
PassesContext
588
416
Accurate passesContext
530
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.03
8.80
FoulsContext
6.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel377 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Dec | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 300 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 25.1 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
19K. Nedeljković
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
27Tidiam Gomis
40Rômulo
11C. Harder
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
44J. Belocian
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
23N. Tella
10M. Tillman
24Aleix García
13Arthur
11M. Terrier
7J. Hofmann
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–6 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 23 of 36 · 1.92 per game | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 RB Leipzig wins1 draws4 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 25 Jan 2025RB Leipzig2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 31 Aug 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–3RB Leipzig
- 20 Jan 2024RB Leipzig2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Aug 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–2RB Leipzig
- 23 Apr 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–0RB Leipzig
- 29 Oct 2022RB Leipzig2–0Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 3.50 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 64% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.08 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 9.93 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 9/13 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 5.29 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 3/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 11.11 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.80 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.91
Red cards0.19league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 21.3
Penalties0.36league 0.32
Home wins32%league 45%
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record4-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W20 Sep 25H · 1.FC Köln3–11
- W15 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- W24 Aug 24H · VfL Bochum1–02
- D10 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg2–21
- W28 Oct 23H · 1.FC Köln6–02
Bayer Leverkusen5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W12 May 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
- W6 Apr 24A · Union Berlin1–02
- W30 Sep 23A · FSV Mainz 053–01
- D10 Sep 22A · Hertha BSC2–21
- W28 Aug 21A · FC Augsburg4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig14 games · scored 29 · conceded 16
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen14 games · scored 30 · conceded 19
6
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
