RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RB Leipzig59.0%fair odds 1.70
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach18.6%fair odds 5.38
Expected goals1.98 – 1.03total 3.01
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RB Leipzig ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RB Leipzig goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.47
- 2–110.0%10.05
- 2–09.7%10.36
- 1–09.2%10.87
- 3–16.6%15.19
- 3–06.4%15.66
- 0–05.4%18.39
- 1–25.2%19.34
- 2–25.1%19.50
- 0–14.5%22.10
Winning margin
17.6%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 5.68
18.2%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 5.50
23.2%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 4.31
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.45
11.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 8.48
4.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 20.39
1.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 53.18
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
RB Leipzig goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 59.0% | 58.2% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 18.6% | 19.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 57.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 55.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 1.98 | 1.94 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.03 | 1.03 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RB Leipzig win59.0%1.70
- Draw22.5%4.45
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win18.6%5.38
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw81.4%1.23
- Double chance RB Leipzig or Borussia Mönchengladbach77.5%1.29
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw41.0%2.44
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig76.0%1.32
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach24.0%4.17
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.8%1.24
- Over 2.558.0%1.72
- Over 3.535.6%2.81
- Over 4.518.7%5.34
- Under 1.519.2%5.22
- Under 2.542.0%2.38
- Under 3.564.4%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.79
- No44.0%2.27
- Yes and over 2.545.5%2.20
- RB Leipzig win and yes28.7%3.48
- Draw and yes17.0%5.88
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes10.3%9.75
Team goals
- RB Leipzig over 0.586.2%1.16
- RB Leipzig over 1.559.0%1.70
- RB Leipzig over 2.531.9%3.13
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.564.3%1.55
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.527.6%3.63
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.58.6%11.62
- RB Leipzig clean sheet35.7%2.80
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet13.8%7.27
- RB Leipzig win to nil30.2%3.31
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil8.3%12.03
Handicap
- RB Leipzig −1.535.8%2.79
- RB Leipzig −2.517.6%5.68
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.564.2%1.56
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.582.4%1.21
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.56.8%14.74
- RB Leipzig +1.593.2%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result73.4%
1X2 Brier0.107
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right100.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.1072 | 0.0821 |
| Avg chance given to result | 73.4% | 76.7% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Bayern München 5–1 VfB Stuttgart73·15·11
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.