Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 31 2026 · 14:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
1–2 Full time · HT 1–1 xG 1.39 – 2.33
FSV Mainz 05
  • C. Harder 40’
  • 45+5’ (P) N. Amiri
  • 49’ S. Katompa Mvumpa
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

FSV Mainz 05 come from behind to beat RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig entered as favourites and led 1–0 after 40 minutes through a Harder goal. But Amiri and Mvumpa scored to turn it around for FSV Mainz 05, who won 2–1. FSV Mainz 05 finished with the higher xG (2.33 vs 1.39). On the chances created, RB Leipzig deserved more: 0.9 expected points against the 0 points they took.

RB Leipzig53%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 05 ✓24%

Model vs reality

RB Leipzig goals
1
Model 1.95 · xG 1.39
FSV Mainz 05 goals
2
Model 1.26 · xG 2.33
Total goals
3
Model 3.22 · xG 3.72
Score 1–2
6%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 62%
Both scored
Yes
Model 62%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchS. Katompa MvumpaFSV Mainz 05 · 1 goal
8.2
  • RefereeDaniel Schlager
  • VenueRed Bull Arena
  • Table before kick-offRB Leipzig 4th · FSV Mainz 05 16th

Timeline

  1. ⇄ S. Katompa MvumpaFor B. Hollerbach
    14’
  2. S. BellYellow card · Tripping
    38’
  3. C. Harder 1–0Assist A. Nusa
    40’
  4. S. PoschYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    45+3’
  5. N. Amiri (pen) 1–1
    45+5’
  6. Half time · 1–1
  7. S. Katompa Mvumpa 1–2Assist P. Tietz
    49’
  8. ⇄ E. BanzuziFor E. Bitshiabu
    59’
  9. ⇄ B. HenrichsFor R. Baku
    59’
  10. ⇄ L. MaloneyFor N. Amiri
    72’
  11. ⇄ Tidiam GomisFor Rômulo
    72’
  12. ⇄ P. MweneFor S. Widmer
    82’
  13. ⇄ P. NebelFor S. Katompa Mvumpa
    82’
  14. ⇄ N. WeiperFor P. Tietz
    82’
  15. ⇄ S. BakayokoFor N. Seiwald
    86’
  16. K. PotulskiYellow card · Foul
    90+3’
  17. Full time · 1–2

Team stats

RB Leipzig15 shots · 14 in box, 1 outside
FSV Mainz 0511 shots · 8 in box, 3 outside
RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
70% Possession 30%
1.39 Expected goals (xG) 2.33
0.86 Expected points (xPts) 1.95
15 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
6 Shots off target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
14 Shots inside the box 8
1 Shots outside the box 3
690 Passes 299
87% Pass accuracy 69%
5 Corners 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 2
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.88 Team rating 7.00

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-4-1-1

16.2 P. Gulácsi(G)
226.9 D. Raum 56.9 E. Bitshiabu ↓59’ 46.9 V. Orbán 176.3 R. Baku ↓59’
77.6 A. Nusa A 246.2 X. Schlager 137.5 N. Seiwald ↓86’ 497.3 Y. Diomande
406.2 Rômulo ↓72’
117.7 C. Harder
  • 1P. Gulácsi (G)6.2
  • 22D. Raum6.9
  • 5E. Bitshiabu↓59’6.9
  • 4V. Orbán6.9
  • 17R. Baku↓59’6.3
  • 7A. NusaA7.6
  • 24X. Schlager6.2
  • 13N. Seiwald↓86’7.5
  • 49Y. Diomande7.3
  • 40Rômulo↓72’6.2
  • 11C. Harder7.7

Substitutes used

  • 39B. Henrichs↑59’6.3
  • 6E. Banzuzi↑59’6.9
  • 27Tidiam Gomis↑72’6.2
  • 9S. Bakayoko↑86’6.3

Unused: M. Vandevoordt, K. Nedeljković, M. Finkgräfe, L. Klostermann, A. Maksimović

FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2

337.5 D. Batz(G)
486.9 K. Potulski 166.9 S. Bell 46.6 S. Posch
306.6 S. Widmer ↓82’ 76.9 J. Lee 67.2 K. Sano 107.3 N. Amiri ↓72’ 217.2 D. da Costa
206.3 P. Tietz A↓82’ 176.3 B. Hollerbach ↓14’
  • 33D. Batz (G)7.5
  • 48K. Potulski6.9
  • 16S. Bell6.9
  • 4S. Posch6.6
  • 30S. Widmer↓82’6.6
  • 7J. Lee6.9
  • 6K. Sano7.2
  • 10N. Amiri↓72’7.3
  • 21D. da Costa7.2
  • 20P. TietzA↓82’6.3
  • 17B. Hollerbach↓14’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 26S. Katompa Mvumpa ★8.2
  • 2P. Mwene↑82’6.3
  • 15L. Maloney↑72’6.3
  • 8P. Nebel↑82’6.7
  • 44N. Weiper↑82’6.5

Unused: L. Rieß, W. Bøving, Daniel Gleiber, A. Nordin

Player stats

Top rated
S. Katompa MvumpaFSV Mainz 058.2
2nd
C. HarderRB Leipzig7.7
3rd
A. NusaRB Leipzig7.6

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
P. Gulácsi G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 86% 29 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
D. Raum D 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 88% 104 2 1 0/0 2/0 6.9
E. Bitshiabu D 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 64 2 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
V. Orbán D 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 90% 88 1 1 0/0 0/1 6.9
R. Baku M 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 55 2 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
A. Nusa M 90 0 1 1 (0) 3 83% 40 0 0 5/8 0/3 7.6
X. Schlager M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 78% 69 0 0 1/1 0/1 6.2
N. Seiwald M 86 0 0 0 (0) 1 92% 73 1 4 0/1 0/0 7.5
Y. Diomande F 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 88% 60 1 0 2/5 0/3 7.3
Rômulo F 72 0 0 2 (1) 0 82% 34 1 0 1/3 0/1 6.2
C. Harder F 90 1 0 4 (2) 1 87% 15 0 0 0/0 1/2 7.7
B. Henrichs D 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 72% 25 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
E. Banzuzi M 31 0 0 1 (0) 0 73% 26 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
Tidiam Gomis F 18 0 0 1 (0) 1 100% 5 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.2
S. Bakayoko F 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

FSV Mainz 05

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
D. Batz G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 69% 26 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
K. Potulski D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 34 0 3 0/0 2/0 6.9
S. Bell D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 29 3 0 0/0 2/0 6.9
S. Posch D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 68% 28 3 3 1/1 2/0 6.6
S. Widmer D 82 0 0 0 (0) 0 47% 17 4 4 0/1 2/0 6.6
J. Lee M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 86% 22 3 3 0/1 0/0 6.9
K. Sano M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 67% 42 5 2 0/0 0/1 7.2
N. Amiri M 72 1 0 1 (1) 1 86% 29 0 0 0/1 0/0 7.3
D. da Costa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 61% 18 6 1 0/0 2/1 7.2
P. Tietz F 82 0 1 3 (0) 1 56% 25 0 1 1/2 1/1 6.3
B. Hollerbach F 14 0 0 1 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
S. Katompa Mvumpa F 68 1 0 2 (2) 1 67% 15 2 0 4/4 0/1 8.2
P. Mwene D 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
L. Maloney D 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 6 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
P. Nebel M 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
N. Weiper F 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 33% 3 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.