RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. RB Leipzig had 3.8 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 325 km.
Away travel325 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
RB Leipzig53%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0524%
RB Leipzig56%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0520%
RB Leipzig53%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0524%
RB Leipzig45%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0531%
RB Leipzig51%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0525%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 87
Team strength
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
76
AttackIn forecast
68
53
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
89%
Scored inContext
58%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
15.47
ShotsContext
11.00
5.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.61
36%
On target shareContext
31%
10.68
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
69%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.95
Shots allowedContext
14.84
3.84
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
3.83
BlocksContext
4.28
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
69%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
488
PassesContext
370
415
Accurate passesContext
276
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.16
FoulsContext
10.79
10.26
Fouls sufferedContext
10.42
1.37
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.21
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.91
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
10.30
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
43%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
69%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.00
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.89
BlocksContext
4.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
68%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
524
PassesContext
339
451
Accurate passesContext
251
86%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.10
FoulsContext
9.10
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,259 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel325 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Jan | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 325 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,259 km | 283 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
7A. Nusa
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
11C. Harder
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
48K. Potulski
16S. Bell
4S. Posch
30S. Widmer
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
10N. Amiri
21D. da Costa
20P. Tietz
17B. Hollerbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-2
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 1.22
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | D 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 3–4 H |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game | 15 of 54 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 RB Leipzig wins2 draws4 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.11
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 44%
- 13 Sep 2025FSV Mainz 050–1RB Leipzig
- 1 Mar 2025RB Leipzig1–2FSV Mainz 05
- 19 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 050–2RB Leipzig
- 30 Mar 2024RB Leipzig0–0FSV Mainz 05
- 4 Nov 2023FSV Mainz 052–0RB Leipzig
- 1 Apr 2023RB Leipzig0–3FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.79 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 53% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 58% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.65 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 10.53 | 9.53 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.37 | 2.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.21 | 4.32 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 8/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 16% 3/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.78 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.73
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+49%league 39%
Fouls22.6league 21.0
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins56%league 44%
RB Leipzig8 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L12 Dec 25A · Union Berlin1–32
- D1 Feb 25A · Union Berlin0–02
- W3 Sep 23A · Union Berlin3–01
- L23 Apr 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–25
- L11 Feb 23H · Union Berlin1–24
FSV Mainz 059 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- L30 Nov 25A · SC Freiburg0–43
- W20 Sep 25A · FC Augsburg4–12
- L30 Mar 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–30
- D8 Feb 25H · FC Augsburg0–03
- W6 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig19 games · scored 37 · conceded 25
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
3
46-60
8
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
FSV Mainz 0519 games · scored 21 · conceded 32
1
7
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
11
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
