RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig 33rd · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

PSV Eindhoven 19th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

RB Leipzig were slight favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig were without C. Baumgartner. PSV Eindhoven were without P. Wanner and J. Schouten. RB Leipzig had 3.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 4 and had to travel 478 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel478 kmRest days3.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

RB Leipzig45%

Draw21%

PSV Eindhoven33%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.68

RB Leipzig37%

Draw26%

PSV Eindhoven37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

RB Leipzig44%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven34%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.69

RB Leipzig37%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven42%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.88

RB Leipzig45%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven33%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.59

Over 2.5 71% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leipzig)

14°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 70%

RefereeNick Walsh

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 88

Team strength

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

76 AttackIn forecast 60

53 DefenceIn forecast 64

47 Form indexContext 68

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack−13%

Defense risk+22%

PSV Eindhoven

Attack−24%

Defense risk+63%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 2.69

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.60 ShotsContext 18.40

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

38% On target shareContext 38%

11.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

69% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 17%

1.14 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.10 Shots allowedContext 10.80

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.00 BlocksContext 3.63

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

63% Save rateContext 69%

57% PossessionIn forecast 61%

533 PassesContext 555

467 Accurate passesContext 490

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.20 FoulsContext 10.00

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig LLWLW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 47 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected

W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
L10 SepA · Como1–41.1 xPts
L5 SepA · Werder Bremen1–32.0 xPts

PSV Eindhoven WDWLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel478 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 68 · 10 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected

W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts
D10 SepH · Shakhtar Donetsk1–12.2 xPts
W5 SepA · Ajax3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct	4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	478 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 17R. Baku

6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui

7A. Nusa 28C. Nkunku 10B. Gruda

40Rômulo

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano

7R. van Bommel 20G. Til 5I. Perišić

21S. Mijnans

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

RB Leipzig Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −11.3% · Defence line −7.0% of weighted minutes

MID C. Baumgartner Starter 6.89 Att −8.1% Def −5.9%
MID A. Ouédraogo Rotation 6.86 Att −1.4% Def −1.1%
ATT Marc Guiu Rotation 6.18 Att −1.8%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Koné, L. Zingerle

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −22.0% · Defence line −14.5% of weighted minutes

MID P. Wanner Starter 6.92 Att −8.0% Def −5.9%
MID J. Schouten Starter 6.97 Att −7.7% Def −5.7%
ATT R. Pepi Rotation 6.95 Att −6.1%
DEF K. Sildillia Rotation 6.67 Def −3.0%
ATT A. Pléa Depth 6.70 Att −0.1%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa

Total impact vs full squads

RB Leipzig+0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
PSV Eindhoven-0.8 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home No home games yet this season.

PSV Eindhoven · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	3.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	71%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	3.20
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	4.20	4.40	3.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	80%	71%
Over 3.5	70%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	90%	70%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.00
Corners conceded	1.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	9.10
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	6.00
Match total	5.00	9.00	3.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	6.13
Corners conceded	4.80	4.50
Match total	10.10	10.63	9.10
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	1.20	2.20
Match total	2.80	3.90	3.75
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nick Walsh 88 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.56league 3.60

Red cards0.22league 0.15

Cards 5+51%league 35%

Fouls24.9league 23.2

Penalties0.28league 0.15

Home wins49%league 60%

RB Leipzig

No previous matches with this referee.

PSV Eindhoven

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.