Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 65). Real Betis had 3.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 6 and had to travel 703 km.
Away travel703 kmRest days3.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Betis38%
Draw28%
Athletic Club34%
Real Betis38%
Draw27%
Athletic Club34%
Real Betis38%
Draw28%
Athletic Club34%
Real Betis31%
Draw28%
Athletic Club41%
Real Betis38%
Draw27%
Athletic Club34%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 23
Team strength
Real Betis
Athletic Club
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
79
AttackIn forecast
51
59
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisAthletic Club
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.59
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.67
ShotsContext
12.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
31%
On target shareContext
29%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
52%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
10.33
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.67
BlocksContext
2.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
83%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
453
PassesContext
352
392
Accurate passesContext
272
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.33
FoulsContext
10.00
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.20
ShotsContext
9.90
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
37%
On target shareContext
25%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
57%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
3.60
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.30
BlocksContext
3.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
66%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
462
PassesContext
366
399
Accurate passesContext
289
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.80
FoulsContext
14.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,123 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Athletic Club
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel703 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Aug | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 703 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,123 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
40Ángel Ortiz
6Sergi Altimira
8Pablo Fornals
17Rodrigo Riquelme
20G. Lo Celso
52Pablo García
19C. Hernández
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar
24Beñat Prados
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
7Álex Berenguer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Athletic Club+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Athletic Club · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Real Betis wins4 draws3 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 2 Feb 2025Real Betis2–2Athletic Club
- 3 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–1Real Betis
- 25 Feb 2024Real Betis3–1Athletic Club
- 27 Aug 2023Athletic Club4–2Real Betis
- 4 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Real Betis
- 29 Dec 2022Real Betis0–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Real Betis | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.00 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 3.00 | 3.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Real Betis | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.33 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.50 | 3.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 3.29
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+70%league 25%
Fouls27.8league 23.4
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins30%league 46%
Real Betis1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 May 24A · Real Madrid0–01
Athletic Club2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Apr 25H · Las Palmas1–01
- D27 Sep 23H · Getafe2–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Athletic Club2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
