Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis37.9%fair odds 2.64
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52
Athletic Club33.7%fair odds 2.97
Expected goals1.29 – 1.20total 2.49
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.40
- 1–010.0%9.97
- 0–19.3%10.77
- 0–09.0%11.12
- 2–18.3%12.09
- 1–27.7%12.99
- 2–06.9%14.50
- 0–26.0%16.73
- 2–25.0%20.16
- 3–13.6%28.16
Winning margin
6.0%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 16.72
11.2%
Real Betis by 2
fair 8.92
20.7%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.83
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.52
19.2%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 5.20
9.7%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 10.29
4.7%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 21.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Real Betis goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Athletic Club goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 37.9% | 38.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.2% | +1.2 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 33.7% | 34.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.3% | 50.0% | -4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 55.0% | -3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.29 | 1.38 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.20 | 1.29 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win37.9%2.64
- Draw28.4%3.52
- Athletic Club win33.7%2.97
- Double chance Real Betis or draw66.3%1.51
- Double chance Real Betis or Athletic Club71.6%1.40
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw62.1%1.61
- Draw no bet Real Betis53.0%1.89
- Draw no bet Athletic Club47.0%2.13
Goals
- Over 0.591.0%1.10
- Over 1.571.7%1.39
- Over 2.545.3%2.21
- Over 3.524.0%4.17
- Over 4.510.7%9.33
- Under 1.528.3%3.53
- Under 2.554.7%1.83
- Under 3.576.0%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.537.7%2.65
- Real Betis win and yes16.8%5.96
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Athletic Club win and yes15.1%6.63
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.572.4%1.38
- Real Betis over 1.536.9%2.71
- Real Betis over 2.514.0%7.13
- Athletic Club over 0.569.9%1.43
- Athletic Club over 1.533.7%2.97
- Athletic Club over 2.512.0%8.31
- Real Betis clean sheet30.1%3.32
- Athletic Club clean sheet27.6%3.63
- Real Betis win to nil21.1%4.73
- Athletic Club win to nil18.6%5.38
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.517.2%5.82
- Real Betis −2.56.0%16.72
- Athletic Club +1.582.8%1.21
- Athletic Club +2.594.0%1.06
- Athletic Club −1.514.4%6.93
- Real Betis +1.585.6%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right64.3%
BTTS called right60.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 44.0% | 30.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 53.1% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.6% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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- ✓Athletic Club 1–0 Rayo Vallecano55·25·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.