Real Betis vs FC Porto – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla

Real Betis 15th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–2Full time

FC Porto 29th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. FC Porto were without J. Bednarek. Real Betis had 3.1 days of rest, FC Porto 4.1 and had to travel 476 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel476 kmRest days3.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Betis38%

Draw22%

FC Porto40%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.74

Real Betis38%

Draw26%

FC Porto36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Real Betis37%

Draw23%

FC Porto40%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.73

Real Betis30%

Draw22%

FC Porto48%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.95

Real Betis38%

Draw23%

FC Porto39%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.70

Over 2.5 67% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

28°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 34%

Warm

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 153

Team strength

Real Betis

FC Porto

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

79 AttackIn forecast 74

59 DefenceIn forecast 79

91 Form indexContext 92

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack−20%

Defense risk+27%

FC Porto

Attack−14%

Defense risk+61%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Real Betis

FC Porto

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

100% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

18.00 ShotsContext 14.90

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44

36% On target shareContext 39%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

54% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.33 OffsidesContext 3.11

14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.10

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.60 BlocksContext 2.80

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

76% Save rateContext 78%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

531 PassesContext 416

466 Accurate passesContext 351

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.30 FoulsContext 13.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis WWWDW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 91 · 13 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W11 OctH · Osasuna5–22.0 xPts
D20 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.6 xPts
W17 SepH · Getafe1–02.0 xPts
W14 SepA · Villarreal2–11.1 xPts
W8 SepA · Lille3–21.1 xPts

FC Porto WWWWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel476 km2,390 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts
W29 AugA · Academico Viseu3–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	476 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,390 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

11Fran García 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 12Ángel Ortiz

21Marc Roca 18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez

10A. Ezzalzouli 22Isco 7Antony

19T. Parrott

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −6.0% of weighted minutes

DEF Aitor Ruibal Rotation 6.79 Def −4.4%
DEF J. Firpo Rotation 6.47 Def −1.6%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): Iker Losada

FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −6.9% · Defence line −21.5% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Bednarek Starter 7.15 Def −16.4%
ATT William Gomes Rotation 6.95 Att −6.9%
DEF Z. Sanusi Rotation 6.89 Def −3.2%
DEF N. Pérez Rotation 7.06 Def −1.7%
DEF D. Prpić Depth 6.63 Def −0.2%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): Gabriel Mec, Vasco Sousa

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis+1.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
FC Porto-0.9 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Porto · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	3.44
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	67%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Real Betis	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.10
Conceded per game	1.20	0.60
Match goals	3.10	2.70	3.44
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	67%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	5.00	5.00
Match total	10.00	7.00	9.36
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	4.00	3.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Real Betis	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.40
Corners conceded	6.60	3.90
Match total	11.60	10.30	9.36
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	0.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	4.20	2.90	3.82
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 153 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.62

Red cards0.23league 0.17

Cards 5+29%league 38%

Fouls22.9league 22.8

Penalties0.35league 0.21

Home wins40%league 59%

Real Betis1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Apr 25A · Jagiellonia1–12

FC Porto3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L23 Jan 25H · Olympiakos Piraeus0–13
L7 Dec 21H · Atletico Madrid1–35
D3 Nov 21A · AC Milan1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.