Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Real Betis had 6 days of rest, Levante 6.1 and had to travel 540 km.
Away travel540 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Betis50%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Real Betis54%
Draw25%
Levante21%
Real Betis49%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Real Betis42%
Draw27%
Levante31%
Real Betis50%
Draw24%
Levante25%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
RefereeMateo Busquets
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 17
Team strength
Real Betis
Levante
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
79
AttackIn forecast
55
59
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisLevante
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
89%
Scored inContext
68%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.76
ShotsContext
11.84
4.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
58%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.87
11.81
Shots allowedContext
14.95
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
3.00
BlocksContext
3.97
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
74%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
460
PassesContext
350
390
Accurate passesContext
277
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.57
FoulsContext
12.32
12.65
Fouls sufferedContext
12.54
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.70
ShotsContext
15.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
32%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
53%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
2.70
BlocksContext
2.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
78%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
461
PassesContext
350
392
Accurate passesContext
280
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.80
FoulsContext
12.30
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,139 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Levante
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel540 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,139 km | 1,531 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90 | 84.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
13Adrián(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
22Isco
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
16K. Arriaga
10Pablo Martínez
9Iván Romero
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
26Kareem Tunde
19Carlos Espí
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Levante-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.83points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-6-3
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.00
Levante · Away
0.89points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-10
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.72
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 HL 1–5 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Girona | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 56 of 108 · 1.56 per game | 41 of 108 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Real Betis wins1 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game2.80 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Levante2–2Real Betis
- 13 Feb 2022Levante2–4Real Betis
- 28 Nov 2021Real Betis3–1Levante
- 19 Mar 2021Real Betis2–0Levante
- 29 Dec 2020Levante4–3Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.84 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 49% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 32% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Real Betis | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 9.88 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 20/36 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 15/36 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 9/36 | 32% 11/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.49 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.70 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 23/37 | 70% 26/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 18/37 | 54% 20/37 | |
| Real Betis | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.80 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.10 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.59league 4.25
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+76%league 46%
Fouls28.3league 24.5
Penalties0.29league 0.35
Home wins53%league 48%
Real Betis3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Mar 25H · Sevilla2–13
- L8 Feb 25A · Celta Vigo2–35
- D25 Aug 24A · Alaves0–04
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis37 games · scored 57 · conceded 47
5
10
0-15
11
7
16-30
9
9
31-45
10
6
46-60
11
7
61-75
11
8
76-90
Levante37 games · scored 46 · conceded 59
4
9
0-15
5
4
16-30
9
12
31-45
8
9
46-60
6
8
61-75
14
17
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
